Andi’s First Primary Post-Redistricting Observations …

I’ll never know why I wake up after any election and start looking at numbers. It’s a quirk in my personality, I suppose. This post-primary morning was no different after my coffee kicked in, so I sharpened the pencil and clicked on over to VPAP as usual.

It didn’t take long to realize that I wasn’t going to be able to look at this primary the same way. Because this is the first primary after the 2021 redistricting, none of my methods of analysis would work. I can’t compare anything to past contests. Well shit. What to do?

The eternal optimist in me quickly understood that I could look at a few contests and use them as a baseline for future elections. So, I started searching. I wanted contests that had primaries for both the Elephant Clan and the Donkey Clan. I found three.

Now before I start with numbers, I need to say that I know I am not a statistician or a math genius. There might be data points I missed, and I welcome constructive criticism. I know nothing about the political/ human dynamic in any of these districts. This is just the funny way my brain works, but I’m always open to suggestions of how to look at it differently. The information I used is what is currently listed on Virginia Public Access Project (VPAP).

Ok … onward to Andi’s first primary post-redistricting observations.

HOD District 84: Suffolk, Isle of Wight “Competitive District,” no incumbent. HD 84 has 66,433 registered voters.

The Republicans:

Dillender and Thompson (Dillender won). 5531 combined votes, 8.32% of registered district voters, $76,554.00 spent on primary.

The Democrats:

Clark and Joyce (Clark won). 4977 combined votes, 7.49% of registered district voters, $283,215.00 spent on primary. It’s interesting to me that Clark spent $255,475.00 on this primary. Yes, the democratic primary was a landslide, but he only had 366 more votes than Dillinger, who spent $58,581.00. And for all of
that money, the elephant clan turned out more primary voters.

SD27:  Fredericksburg “Leans Republican” No Incumbent. SD27 has 155,402 registered voters.

The Republicans:

Durant and Strickland (Durant won); 14,062 combined votes, 9.04% of registered district voters. $626,270.00 spent on primary.

The Democrats:

Griffin and Litchfield (Griffin won); 10,371 combined votes, 6.67% of registered district voters. $548,349.00 spent. While Durant spent twice as much as anyone else except Litchfield, in this case, it seems to have paid off. It’s looking more like a “ likely Republican” come November.

SD29: Prince William, Stafford “Leans Democratic” Has Incumbent (McPike). SD29 has 141,256 registered voters.

The Republicans:

Martin and Baldwin (Martin won). 5178 combined votes, 3.66% of registered district voters. $45,410.00 spent. A noteworthy pain that needs mention in this contest … Martin beat Baldwin by … get this … 10 votes. Ouch. That hurts, I don’t care who you are.

The Democrats:

McPike and Guzman (McPike won). 12,362 combined votes, 8.75% of registered district voters. $1,356,386.00 spent. I would normally say that this district looks to be more like a “Strong Dem,” just based on turnout, but good golly! So much money was spent by the Donkey Clan on this one, almost $886,000 of it spent by McPike alone.

On a personal note, it just wouldn’t be right for me to look at the above three districts that are all alien to me without also including a note about a district I am familiar with. So, it is with great joy that I congratulate Glen Sturtevant on his triumph over the Damsel in orange red distress in SD 12, and in my corner of the world, Laura Ecimovic, New Kent County Commissioner of the Revenue, for her victory over … well, she knows. More on that to come.

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