No, It Wasn’t Election Fraud – Wisconsin Edition

This post is the third in an irregular series of posts on how Joe Biden flipped five states in last month’s election – and no, it wasn’t fraud. I addressed Pennsylvania first, then Michigan.

Wisconsin was the tipping point state in November’s election. Ironically, however, it may be getting the least attention among the five states Biden flipped. Arizona and Georgia were more surprising, while Pennsylvania and Michigan had more obvious urban targets for President Trump. That said, the Trump campaign is still trying to overturn the result and Trump still (on occasion) insists that Milwaukee chicanery took the state’s 10 electoral votes away from him.

Similar to the Michigan analysis, I’m using a combination of Dave Leip‘s county data with municipal data from the City of Milwaukee. Remember, Trump won Wisconsin in 2016 by 22,748 votes. Contrary to Trump’s assertion, Milwaukee City did not eliminate that margin.

• Milwaukee City 2016: Clinton – 188,657, Trump – 45,411; Margin = 143,246
• Milwaukee City 2020: Biden – 194,661, Trump – 48,414; Margin = 146,247
• Biden net gain = 3,001

Unlike Philadelphia and Detroit (where Biden had a smaller advantage than Clinton did), Milwaukee City did give Biden a small net boost. However, it wasn’t nearly enough to flip the state. For those net gains to Biden, one has to look outside the city to the suburbs (again) – in this case, the rest of Milwaukee County plus the “WOW” counties (Washington, Ozaukee, and Waukesha).

• Milwaukee County
  • 2016: Clinton – 288,822, Trump – 126,069; Margin = 162,753
  • 2020: Biden – 317,527, Trump – 134,482; Margin = 183,045
  • Biden net gain outside Milwaukee City = 17,307
• Washington County
  • 2016: Trump – 51,740, Clinton – 20,852; Margin = -30,888
  • 2020: Trump – 60,237, Biden – 26,650; Margin = -33,587
  • Biden net loss = 2,699
• Ozaukee County
  • 2016: Trump – 30,464, Clinton – 20,170; Margin = -10,294
  • 2020: Trump – 33,912, Biden – 26,517; Margin = -7,395
  • Biden net gain = 2,899
• Waukesha County
  • 2016: Trump – 142,543, Clinton – 79,224; Margin = -63,319
  • 2020: Trump – 159,649, Biden – 103,906; Margin = -55,743
  • Biden net gain = 7,576
• Total Biden net gain = 25,083

The pattern seen in Pennsylvania and in Michigan has revealed itself again: Trump largely holds his own in the urban center, but bleeds enough votes in the suburbs to lose the state.