In what can only be called a buttkicking of Biblical proportions, Del. John Cosgrove took the Tea Party, Sen. Rand Paul, Ron Paul, a false-attack-filled gun group and GOP District Chairman and blasted them so far over the fence, they’re still chasing the ball.
Cosgrove almost tripled the vote of Chris Stearns in a firehouse primary, a method of nomination thought to be friendly to Tea Party candidates. The losing campaign was astroturf-a-plenty, as the Paul-backed Stearns moved into the district prior to filing, and blanketed the district with attack mail. Out-of-towners showed up to knock on doors.
Out-of-staters Ron Paul and Sen. Rand Paul endorsed Stearns, and the fledgling “National Association for Gun Rights,” until now only known for launching false attacks on Congressmen like House Majority Leader Eric Cantor and Scott Rigell, launched another untrue one against Del. John Cosgrove through direct mail.
Ron and Rand Paul and this phony gun group share an egg-faced breakfast this morning.
It’s hard not to see this as a trend. Three days ago, another Virginia firehouse primary was lost by the Tea Party, as Botetourt County supervisor Terry Austin sent Tea-backed Jim McKelvey packing.
And last fall, 6 Tea Party-backed candidates launched a team campaign assault to win Virginia Beach local government seats. They went 0 for 6.
But the Cosgrove-Stearns shellacking hurts the most. This time, they spent major money on direct mail, had the low turnout they supposedly could perform the best in, and had the direct involvement of PACs and the revered Pauls.
Granted, I was part of the Cosgrove team and live in the 14th District (those two things seemed to go together). But there are a few things worth mentioning:
1) Out-of-town negatives don’t work. Cosgrove’s A-plus rating with the NRA trumped advertising with misleading attacks from NAGR. Local voters knew Cosgrove enough to know the attacks were false.
2) Astroturf loses – Distant endorsements, distant money, distant attacks and a team of volunteers that spends weekends in hotels can not defeat a locally-grown campaign of neighbors with local ties to the community.
3) Be for something – Stearns’ campaign mail was completely negative from the outset. Stearns did nothing to build himself up. That gave Cosgrove, who actually polled with high name ID and popularity, the opening to respond in kind. When the smoke cleared, Stearns had built up no positives – just a reputation as a negative campaigner.
4) Social conservatism ain’t done yet – Republican primary voters are still social conservatives, and as much as the Democrats wish we don’t discuss God and Country, social issues are supremely important to Christian voters who know who to vote for and turn out in droves.
Ron Paul has made a career out of losing. Voters may recall how he spent 1988 attacking Ronald Reagan when Paul tried to become President and barely won a neighborhood. His crushing defeats in 2008 and 2012, where he never won a single primary election, didn’t exactly rewrite the book on election strategy, unless the title is “Attack, say Liberty, and Lose.”
That Sen. Rand Paul, a presidential hopeful, and that faux-gun PAC were so non-influentual casts a giant shadow on their effectiveness at a grassroots level.
With the Republican Convention for Virginia candidates a week away, and the Tea Party actively tied to at least three campaigns, one wonders if candidates should be seeking Tea Party support or steering clear in hopes of avoiding being added to the Latest Loser column.
One thing is clear. You better bring a lot more to the dance than attack ads, PACs and Pauls.
