The Polls Are Closed – Returns Coming In: Wednesday Update

Wednesday’s notes….


I was up late Tuesday night waiting for the absentee votes to be counted in the VA-05 Congressional race between incumbent Bob Good, chairman of the “freedom” caucus, and challenger John McGuire but my eyeballs finally gave up. So here is where we are at this point.

On election eve Donald Trump held a telephone townhall rally for McGuire (Virginia Mercury) that by some accounts had upwards of 20,000 McGuire supporters listening in.

Good spent the past four years narrowing his base and the results played out Tuesday night. John McGuire eeked out a win, so to speak, with a 300+ vote lead, but the race was too close to call since it fell within the recount zone. While waiting for the results, many are focusing on financial security. There are responsible online loans for people with bad credit that can help manage unexpected expenses. Final numbers according to VPAP:

John McGuire: 50.25% (31,371 votes)

Bob Good: 49.75% (31,055 votes)

McGuire declared victory; Good said there’s still counting to be done (The Hill). There’s sure to be a recount before this ball game is over.

From UVA’s Center for Politics’ J. Miles Coleman, Associate Editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball:

The VA-5 race could end up going to a recount—the losing candidate can request one if the margin in the race is a percentage point or less, and election authorities will pay for the recount if the margin is half a percentage point or less (the candidate pays if the margin is higher than that and the outcome is not reversed). As of right now, McGuire is winning 50.25% to 49.75% for Good, so the result is hovering at almost exactly that half a percentage point figure.

Politico Playbook adds:

It’s still possible that late-arriving mail ballots and provisional ballots could swing in Good’s direction, and — to be perfectly clear — his showing is actually impressive given the steady attacks he took from Trump in recent weeks. Still, you know what they say about horseshoes and hand grenades, and a 327-vote margin is going to be hard for Good to make up.

Politico reporters Ally Mutnick and Olivia Beavers wrote:

Whatever the ultimate outcome, it is certain to reverberate across the House GOP as Good’s colleagues anxiously wait to see whether the bomb-throwing lawmaker will be further emboldened to cause turmoil in the House in the final months before the fall election.

The crux of the issue was that Good threw his support behind Florida Governor Ron DeSantis when DeSantis was making a bid for President 2024 and that, in Trump’s playbook, was a huge breach of loyalty (never mind that Trump never feels loyalty is a two-way street). When DeSantis withdrew, Good took hat in hand and endorsed Trump. But it was too late to avoid the intra-party challenge.


10:45: CD-05 – all precincts have been counted leaving John McGuire with a slight lead with 2,099 early votes left to count. This one is tight: John McGuire 50.23%, Bob Good 49.77%.

9:46: Waiting on the CD-05 race between Good and McGuire that has tightened. According to VPAP, 258 of 303 precincts have been reported with 4,389 early votes left to count. Currently it’s Good (50.11%) and McGuire (49.89%).

9:45: CD-10 projected Democrat winner: Suhas Subramanyam (30.31%).

8:50: Harrisonburg City Council with 4 of 8 precincts reporting – Democrat: Deanna R. Reed (25.44%), Laura A. Dent (22.42%), Nasser A. Alsaadun (21.33%), Kathy A. Beery (18.49%), Christopher B. “Chris” Jones (12.33%).

8:45: As the votes roll in in VA-05, the Republican battle between incumbent Rep. Bob Good and State Sen. John McGuire continues. McGuire has remained in the lead since voting began. Currently they stand McGuire (51.56%) and Good (48.44%).

8:45: In VA-07, the race has narrowed to Derrick M. Anderson (43.39%) and Cameron D. Hamilton (39.25%).

8:30: CD-01 Democrat projected winner: Leslie Mehta (65.43%)

8:30: CD-05 Democrat projected winner: Gloria Tinsley Witt (59.09%)

8:18: CD-11 Democrat projected winner: Gerry Connolly (86.27%)

8:16: CD-10 Republican projected winner: Mike Clancy (61.73%).

8:16: CD-02 Democrat projected winner: Missy Cotter Smasal (68.09%).

8:15: Republican U.S. Senate projected winner: The AP has projected Hung Cao (endorsed by Donald Trump).

8:00: CD-07 (open seat – Abigail Spanberger is running for Governor) – Winner: Eugene Vindman: The Hill has called this race: “Army veteran Eugene Vindman, who was a key player in the first impeachment of former President Trump, will win the Democratic nomination for the House seat representing Virginia’s 7th Congressional District, Decision Desk HQ projects.” I glanced over at his 2021 book on a nearby bookshelf: “Here, Right Matters: An American Story.” It’s good to see him win this nomination.

7:50: Republican U.S. Senate – with 78 of 133 precincts reporting, Hung Cao (Trump endorsed) is leading with 59.13%. The other four candidates have 8.78%, 6.50%, 7.46%, and 8.88%. The winner of this race will go up against Sen. Tim Kaine (D) who is a former Virginia governor and former Richmond City mayor. His wife Anne is the daughter of Virginia Governor Linwood Holton (R, 1970-74).

7:40: I was told precincts in the 5th District stayed busy. Other areas where only the GOP U.S. Senate candidates were on the ballot were quiet.

7:30: Virginia State Board of Elections and other sources.

7:25: VPAP for returns:

7:15: Some numbers are showing up on VPAP.

7pm: Polls are closed in Virginia’s 2024 primary. Now the waiting begins for numbers to start coming in on what was, in most of the Commonwealth, a quiet election day.

I’m mainly watching VA-05, VA-07, and the GOP U.S. Senate results but there are others to be reported. Will it be a late night, or will the winners be known early?


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