Ever since Liz Truss learned the wrong lesson [1] from the 1980s, the Conservative government in Britain has had the inescapable stench of a zombie regime. Rishi Sunak has tried for a little over a year to right the ship. He may have succeeded with the UK economy, as inflation finally came close to 2 percent (BBC [2]). His attempts to revive Tory fortunes have been … less effective (Telegraph [3]).
Still, he’s decided to give it a shot (Telegraph [4]):
Rishi Sunak effectively confirmed he will lead the Tories into the general election as he said the choice on July 4 will be between him and Sir Keir Starmer.
He said: “On July 5 either Keir Starmer or I will be prime minister. He has shown time and time again that he will take the easy way out and do anything to get power.
“If he was happy to abandon all the promises he made to become Labour leader once he got the job, how can you know that he won’t do exactly the same thing if he were to become prime minister?”
Sunak is nothing if not earnest. He has even managed to create real space [5] between his party and Labour on the critical issue of defense spending. Yet he begins a campaign as a Prime Minister less likely to keep his job than any since John Major in 1997. Sunak could have waited until December to do this. He clearly viewed the prospect of six more months in power trailing by double digits in the polls as not worth it. So exactly 248 years after Britain lost the United States, they will decide if they want to lose the Tory government.
Labour, the opposition that has been leading by over 20 points in the polls since last year, have been desperate for an election to be called. With one decent inflation report, the beleaguered government obliged. Clearly Sunak is hoping he can run as the safe pair of hands who saw Britain through the storm. If he can convince the voters that the storm was COVID, he could make this competitive.
If the British public stick to their current assumption that the storm was Sunak’s prior Tory PMs, then 2024 could become another 1997-style blowout in Labour’s favor.