Bolling: 10 U.S. Senate Seats Most Likely to Flip in 2024

/ May 26, 2023

We know there is a presidential election in 2024, but don’t forget, one-third of the seats in the U.S. Senate will also be on the election ballot in 2024.

Right now, these are the 10 U.S. Senate seats that will likely be the most competitive in 2024:

1. West Virginia, where incumbent Democrat Joe Manchin will face a likely challenge from Republican Governor Jim Justice.

2. Montana, where incumbent Democrat Jon Tester will be running for reelection.

3. Ohio, where incumbent Democrat Sherrod Brown will be running for reelection.

4. Arizona, where former Democrat, turned Independent, Senator Kyrsten Sinema will be running for reelection.

5. Nevada, where incumbent Democrat Jacky Rosen will be running for reelection.

6. Wisconsin, where incumbent Democrat Tammy Baldwin will be running for reelection.

7. Michigan, where incumbent Democrat Debbie Stabenow is retiring.

8. Pennsylvania, where incumbent Democrat Bob Casey is running for reelection.

9. Texas, where incumbent Republican Ted Cruz could face a stiff reelection campaign.

10. Florida, where incumbent Republican Rick Scott will be running for reelection.

The map certainly favors Republicans, with 8 of the 10 most competitive seats currently being held by Democrats.

Republicans’ best chances for pick ups will be in West Virginia, Montana, and Ohio. The races get more challenging after that based on past electoral performance.

Yes, the map certainly favors Republicans, but we said the same thing in 2020. Republicans blew it in 2020 by nominating a bunch of unelectable candidates, and they could certainly do the same in 2024. It will be interesting to see how these and other U.S. Senate races unfold.

The one state you will not see on this list is Virginia, where incumbent Democrat Tim Kaine will be seeking reelection. Virginia is still classified as a “leans Democratic” state, and right now, Republicans do not have a strong alternative to compete with Kaine.

Who do you think would be the strongest Republican candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2024?

Bill Bolling spent 22 years in elected office including eight years as 39th Lieutenant Governor of the Commonwealth of Virginia. He lives in the Richmond area with his wife Jean Ann and teaches government and politics at George Mason University, University of Richmond, and Virginia Commonwealth University.

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