Saxman: And They’re Off! Virginia’s Election Derby Is Underway.
Virginia FREE Fridays at 3pm today – click here – will focus on the two House and two Senate nominations being conducted by Republicans this weekend.
As the regular attendees can attest – it’s a very lively conversation and one never knows where we will go; however, news of the week will be central.
Let’s kick off Virginia’s Election Derby Season with a congratulations to Chris Obenshain for being the first candidate nominated in a contested election thus far.
Yes, that will be a great trivia question years to come.
See Scott “McGoogle” McGeary of Washington Gas for more.
House District 41
Obenshain defeated Lowell Bowman 57-43 for the seat that is 74% Montgomery County and 26% Roanoke County. Raw vote – 302 to 232.
Glenn Youngkin defeated Terry McAuliffe here 56-44.
Obenshain is the favorite in the general but will need to get his name ID up soon in the new 41st District. The GOP needs to have the 41st off the board as early as possible and cannot spend money late here if they hope to retain their majority.
Smart move to get this nomination over as soon as possible as the Democrat, Lily Franklin, has thus far out raised both Republicans.
41st is Lean + Republican district that will move to Likely Republican if Obenshain raises the necessary money.
House District 89 – Chesapeake and Suffolk Cities.
The Republicans are running a Ranked Choice Firehouse Primary with three voting locations on Saturday.
The GOP has successfully used Ranked Choice Voting in recent elections and is wise to use it here. Three candidates are on the ballot but the real action is between Don Carey and Baxter Ennis.
RCV helped the Republicans quickly reunite after the bruising, but brief 2021 nomination battles. They will need that here in the 89th in order to win this seat that went 54-46 Youngkin over McAuliffe.
Carey and Ennis have raised roughly the same amounts but Carey loaned his campaign a 50k kicker, but Ennis has more small dollar donors.
Rate this one a Toss Up for the nomination between the two with Jason Woolridge a likely distant 3rd.
The 89th is a Lean GOP district for the fall going into this nomination. We’ll see if that holds.
Senate District 10
Republicans will hold … yes … a convention on Saturday.
<insert eye roll>
The 10th is a 68-32 Youngkin over McAuliffe district and the winner of this four-candidate convention will be the de facto senator.
Since it is a single location convention, you (presumably a normal person) would probably pick a location that was proximate to the population of this expansive district, right?
Here’s the breakdown of that population:
You would be wrong.
The convention is in Buckingham which has 6% of the new 10th’s population.
And you’re probably wondering why would they do that? Well, this is the central problem with conventions as a nominating method.
The planners intentionally select the most difficult method with the most complex rules so that only the most committed delegates who actually sign up and attend will actually drive to the location and actually withstand HOURS of rules debates, credentialing of the delegates, and then actual rounds of balloting.
Mind you – this is all with the intent to favor one candidate – the favored one of the planners. #Integrity Also see #RNC2024.
I’ll be broadcasting the melee starting at noon tomorrow with John Fredericks on his growing radio network of soon to be 12 stations around the East Coast and Mid-Atlantic states. Listen in on Frederick’s App or watch live GETTR, Twitter, or Rumble.
This is going to be a barn burner. Three candidates have raised over $250k each and 1,000 of the 3,000 registered convention delegates are expected to attend.
By the numbers:
Delegate John McGuire $300k raised, 328 donors over $100 and 287 under $100
Duane Adams $287k raised, 201 over $100 and 56 under
Jack Dyer $250k raised, 146 over $100 and 77 under
Sandy Brindley $36k raised, 6 over $100 and 14 under.
McGuire seems to have slight lead heading into the convention with Adams and Dyer making solid runs, too. Brindley is obviously behind. One never knows about conventions given all the difficulties in getting supporters to actually cast ballots.
BUT it just doesn’t matter since this is such a strong Republican district. It just doesn’t matter how divided the convention delegates are or what differentiates the candidates who actually ran. #Polarization101
And the beat goes on…
Senate District 28
Senator Bryce Reeves $644k raised, 376 donors over $100 and 216 under.
Mike Allers $46k raised, 23 donors over $100 and 43 under.
Reeves seems to have the clear advantage and is expected to win this firehouse primary in the new 28th Senate district.
Fun fact – although Reeves is considered the incumbent 64% of the 28th is new to him.
Out raising opponents is so important for the primaries this year because … Name ID.
If you missed last week’s Polling Presentation by Amanda Iovino of WPA Intel, here are a couple of instructive slides:
If you would like to be added to the weekly calendar invites just reply to this email with “Add me.”
RIP to Gordon Lightfoot.
Found out this week that song is NOT called Every Highway.
Fun Family Fact – today William and his bride, Chelsea, close on their house!
Been a long time coming as they were married last June. Thursday they head out on their honeymoon to Greece and will move out upon their return to the States.
Yes, we are still planning on building the family compound/barndominium.
Have a great and safe weekend.
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