Saxman: Biden and Trump – the Rematch Is Not Inevitable
Force equals mass times acceleration.
F=ma
The re-election campaigns of Presidents Biden and Trump are all mass and no acceleration.
They need and feed each other; however, that co-dependency is grossly unhealthy for the rest of us.
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Biden is at 43-54 Approve/Disapprove. Six months ago?
43-54.
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How about Trump? Six months ago he was 42-54.
Today 39-55. Statistical tie or or wishful thinking baby steps?
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Jonathan Martin over at Politico offers an inevitable and good column “Is Trump Inevitable? – Some in the GOP Are Starting to Wonder”
I met with three members of Congress (not all from Virginia) last week. They are resigned that Trump will win the nomination, but lose the general.
Resigned.
That’s how Ed O’Neill described his tryout for the role of Al Bundy in Married with Children. He was going to play him as being resigned to his lot in life.
At age 40.
He got the part, but it’s the look of resignation that I see most often during conversations about 2024.
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Stuck.
Quite a contrast to 2015/2016 when Trump found a movement underway and captured it with excellent branding elements – Drain the Swamp and Make America Great Again. Acceleration hit mass just as Hillary! Clinton decelerated due to Comey.
The 2020 campaign of Joe Biden had the look of determination driven by the desire to defeat the Donald. Today there is very little enthusiasm for Joe 2.0.
It’s like when Jake and Elwood Blues walked into Bob’s Country Bunker and asked what kind of music they played there:
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We got both kinds of political parties. We got Us and Them.
Herb Stein famously noted:
If something can’t go on forever, it will stop.
But did Stein offer anything about stuck going on forever?
No, but Isaac Newton did.
Newton’s FIRST Law of Motion is the law of inertia via Khan Academy:
An object at rest remains at rest, or if in motion, remains in motion at a constant velocity unless acted on by a net external force.
NET external force.
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As long as Trump is the prohibitive favorite to win the GOP nomination, Democrats will continue riding with Biden.
WOW – Trump is leading Florida Governor Ron DeSantis by a LOT, right? Sure looks that way.
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28+ point lead. But is it solid? It closed to 15, but Trump’s indictment helped him get back most of that. (Yes, I read that back to myself.)
If Trump was such a lock to win the general election in 2024, would TEN other people be running against him – INCLUDING his own VICE President?
Six months ago Trump was leading DeSantis by 33. Now, it’s 28. That ain’t nothing. Clearly not acceleration.
Statistical tie? Maybe…
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The national polling swings are wild, too – between 46 and 15 point margins.
Is the mass fluid or solid?
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Looks pretty fluid to me.
Maybe not so inevitable after all…
The ONE polling number I am trying to dig out from pollsters is the one that I think is central to the November 2024 election – how many 2020 Trump voters are actually Never Again Trumpers?
Let’s call them NATs for short.
NATs are already showing up in top line polling numbers in this New York Post article which compared how Biden does against DeSantis and Trump in battleground states:
The survey also showed DeSantis leading Biden in five of six likely 2024 battleground states — Arizona (48%-42%), Michigan (45%-43%), Nevada (44%-41%), North Carolina (44%-41%) and Pennsylvania (45%-42%).
In a sixth battleground state, Wisconsin, DeSantis and Biden are in a dead heat with 45% support each.
It’s all about the Electoral College and polling in that NYP article has it currently:
319 Biden
219 Trump
But…
296 DeSantis (with Wisconsin)
242 Biden
Turns out there are Swing Voters and not just #NATs.
Quite a few actually are available for acceleration according to Harris/Harvard polling:
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Ross Perot netted 19 in ‘92 and changed the trajectory of BOTH parties.
More than half is an attention getter.
Reminder, in recent polling Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin was ahead of Biden by 16 in Virginia. Biden beat Trump by 10 in 2020. Net 26.
A net 26 could be a serious force in many other states. See 2020 results by %
(Biden Trump L to R)
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Last year, Vermont Republican Governor Phil Scott won re-election with 71% while Democrat Peter Welch won US Senator with 68% of the vote.
Same day. Vermont.
In 2018, Massachusetts voters elected Republican Governor Charlie Baker with 67% of the vote AND Democrat Elizabeth Warren to the US Senate with 60%.
Same day. Massachusetts.
There is a force in the electorate that is yearning to be freed.
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In 1987, Al Bundy chose a life of resignation at the age of 40.
Given all the choices Americans have these days, it’s hard to imagine the inevitability of a Biden – Trump rematch.
L’chaim!
Exclusive polling update from WPA Intel’s Amanda Iovino today at 3pm.
Click here to join – topics:
- Biden v. Trump
- Biden v. DeSantis
- Is there a Big Tent on Abortion?
- West Virginia Senate Preview – Justice v. Manchin
Come for the slide deck, stay for the conversation – always engaging and highly educational.
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