Is France Having a Weimar Moment?

When it comes to historical parallels, one of the most overused is Weimar Germany. We’ve all rolled our eyes as our political opponents played the Weimar card. Even I will admit to relying on Weimar-era examples frequently. Unfortunately for all of us, one major European nation seems determined to repeat this phase of history. Of all places, it happens to be the French Republic.

Macro Factors

Many of the Weimar parallels simply reflect the larger problems European nations face regarding extremism: a strong far-right party, a shaky anti-far-right majority spread from center-left to center-right slowly losing its grip on the legislature, economic reforms snarled by the previously mentioned problems.

For the uninitiated, the current President of France (Emmanuel Macron) created and leads a “centrist” party that has basically become his own personal vehicle for getting on the ballot and defeating Marine Le Pen of the Putin-friendly National Front/National Rally. In 2017, he defeated Le Pen in a landslide (after both took the top two spots in the first round). He repeated the performance in 2022, but Le Pen crossed 40% of the vote. Meanwhile, his party lost its majority in the National Assembly. He now relies on the smaller center-right Republicans to keep his government in place (like Weimar, the president appoints a prime minister, but the PM needs a majority in the Assembly to maintain office).

Macron Factors

Into all of this, Macron attempted to pass a pension reform that raises the retirement age from 62 to 64. It’s an idea similar to some talk over here about raising the retirement age for Social Security and Medicare (although the age for full benefits is 67 here). The plan is very controversial in France, leading many to think it would likely fail in the Assembly.

To overcome the resistance, Macron reached back into history. Unfortunately, he went for Paul Hindenburg and Heinrich Bruning.

No, seriously.

France is on the verge of a “democratic breakdown”, Emmanuel Macron was warned last night after he rammed his unpopular pension reform through parliament without a vote.

The opposition said the controversial move was a denial of democracy and an admission of weakness while unions warned it was tantamount to a declaration of war.

A spontaneous demonstration of several thousand people erupted on Thursday night in the Place de la Concorde, in Paris, where fires were lit and protesters clashed with police.

To chants of “La Marseillaise” and “resign” from the opposition, Élisabeth Borne, the French prime minister, announced that her minority government would trigger article 49.3 of the constitution that bypasses a vote.

In scenes of high tension, she declared: “We cannot gamble on the future of our pensions, and this reform is necessary.”

Mr Macron reportedly told ministers during an Elysée crisis meeting that the “financial risks” were too great not to see the reform passed.

For those with some knowledge of Weimar, the incident is sure to trigger memories of Article 48, which allowed the pre-Nazi German government to issue any law it wanted by presidential decree. The only recourse for the Reichstag was to withdraw confidence in the government and hope the new one would reverse the policy.

In France, the Assembly’s only recourse is…

Paragraph 3 of Article 49 allows the prime minister, “after deliberation by the Council of Ministers,” to force a bill through the Assemblée Nationale with no vote. The only alternative to prevent the bill from passing is then to overthrow the government.

When the prime minister triggers this procedure, MPs have the option of tabling a motion of no confidence within 24 hours. If a majority vote is obtained, the law is rejected and the government collapses. The next logical move would be for the president to dissolve the Assemblée and call early elections.

If the motion of no confidence is rejected, the government wins its gamble: the law is passed.

On Monday afternoon, the Assembly reviewed two no-confidence motions and rejected both of them. The Republicans – who weren’t willing to support the reform when it was a bill – stood by him this time, keeping the government in place and keep the enacted-by-fiat law in place. Macron himself was never in danger of losing office.

This drama is far from over for the French. Protests and strikes are almost certain to continue. More to the point, reaching for the vote ban hammer creates all sorts of new excuses for Russian trolls and other dezinformatsia forces to divide the French among themselves. Whatever one thinks about strengthening France’s pension system, weakening democracy is too high a price.

Macron paid it anyway. Unless he wants to be known as the President who Weimarized France, he’d best not do it again.