- Bearing Drift - https://bearingdrift.com -

Saxman: The Ties That Bind – Budget and Election Showdown 2023; Nikki Haley Announces for POTUS.

Virginia FREE Fridays today at 3pm. Click here to join that Zoom. [1]

Subjects include 2023 General Assembly election updates, whether or not the General Assembly will adjourn on time with amendments to the Biennial Budget or not, and the 2024 POTUS race is on – Nikki Haley announced this week or didn’t you get her six emails a day for the last two weeks? Oy.

*****

RCP polling average shows Haley currently in fourth.

[2]

Haley’s introductory video – starts with race and ends talking about bullies:

[3]As I wrote last week, there is a very real possibility of the current “short session” adjourning Sine Die (next Saturday) without passing amendments to the Budget.

The Commonwealth is funded through June 30, 2024. So, this is not a government shutdown kind of brinksmanship. Real budgeting differences. Quick – name one!

Unlike the 2001 Session in which there was a big brouhaha over taxes, this session doesn’t seem to have A Big Deal.

Going back to last week’s tribute to Burt Bacharach, Dionne Warwick sings Alfie.

What’s it all about Alfie?

[4]There are important issues at play but can you even name them? And if you can, do you really think it will impact the elections this fall? Maybe?

Today’s Richmond Times Dispatch has an article in which Governor Glenn Youngkin states flatly: [5]

“We’re not at a terribly different place than we were last year,” Youngkin said. “We had a big gap, and we worked it out. I’m in no hurry; I’m here all summer.”

Since this is an election year (Virginia, duh) and the presidential primary season will be in full bloom this summer, one has to calculate in the coming federal fiscal fight which will be happening at the very same time.

Trump and a government shutdown. Awesome sauce.

Washington Post article on that [6]. (h/t Mike Henry) As the article suggests, this battle will be between July and September. Dust off those Tricorn hats…

Or order from Amazon now [7] – Prime customers get delivery this Sunday. How about the title of that link? “Funny Party Hats Colonial Style Tricorn Hat.”

SO.

Virginia might be having yet another special session and this one will be over amendments to the Biennial Budget. July in Richmond is as comfortable as sitting between Donald Trump and Mike Pence in the middle seat of a transcontinental flight.

On Southwest.

Without Wifi.

Neither drink.

Animal House GIFs | Tenor [8]

#RatherDrillALiveTooth.

July is out.

How about August then? Beach.

September? Lemme see…

Well, voting starts September 22nd or 23rd soooo … how about August?

If the national conversation is about the return of Donald Trump and a federal government shutdown, how will that impact the few very toss-up districts in suburban Northern Virginia, metro Richmond, and Hampton Roads?

Can you say government employees in low turnout elections? I knew you could.

This fall is starting to get that 2013 feel again. Remember that special time? Ted Cruz led a federal shutdown and then the Obamacare website crashing. Remember those dueling October narratives? Fun times. Yes, it’s been ten years already.

Now layer on early voting and the fact that 2013 didn’t have many incumbents returning – or not – from primary nominations.

Clerk, call the roll…

Speaking of train wrecks…

Prayers up for East Palestine, Ohio.

Nice pivot?

Sincere about prayers for that community, but remember what completely changed the dynamic of the 2001 election and frankly the trajectory of the following two decades – 9/11.

Anything can happen.

My advice having run a campaign in 2001?

Settle the budget differences, declare victory, and go home to campaign. Most folks don’t pay attention to these budget battles. Those who do will show up to vote anyway.

I’m just not sensing a compelling narrative out of either party, chamber, or branch of government. Now, some folks will say – rightly – that they are, in fact, working on X, Y, and Z while opposing A, B, and C from the other side but honestly – has anything bubbled up to the surface?

This fall, the House could go 50/50 and the Senate might also tie up at 20/20. Very possible. Not probable. But still…

Speaking of ties…

The third season of Ted Lasso comes out on Apple TV March 15th. The first season about an American football coach being chosen to manage an English Premier League soccer team was nothing short of spectacular.

YARN | Right. Y'all do ties here. | Ted Lasso (2020) - S01E01 Pilot | Video  gifs by quotes | 7b388395 | ? [9]

March Madness is right about the corner. No ties there!

Since 2015, every winner of the NCAA Men’s Basketball tournament has finished in the top 3 in Ken Pomeroy’s rankings. [10] Here’s KenPom’s current rankings:

[11]

Virginia is ranked #17 in KenPom and Virginia Tech is ranked between the NIT and CBI. Maybe this year the Hokies will get a trophy!

Twitter avatar for @CaseEmpty

EmptyTrophyCase @CaseEmpty
VPISU has gone 42,692 days without winning an NCAA championship #TitlelessTown
5:00 PM ? Feb 17, 2023

Speaking of trophies…

One of the – if not THE – greatest call(s) in broadcasting history occurred in 2001 when Tim McCarver rightly described what was about to happen in Game 7 of the World Series. Game tied 2-2. Bases loaded.

[12]RIP Tim McCarver.

One of the best in broadcasting and a 2x World Series winner, 2x All Star catcher.

Spring training starts next Friday, pitchers and catchers reported earlier this week, and the World Baseball Classic begins March 8th.

[13]While it’s raining, it feels like the roof of winter is lifting…

What a week that was! #Decembrrrr

For the full experience from Chris Saxman, subscribe to The Intersection  [14]