Saxman: Tim Kaine Running for 3rd Term; General Assembly Nomination Fights /Galore; Recession Looks Less Likely But Still Possible

Senator Tim Kaine is running for a 3rd term in the US Senate, but who will the Republicans nominate? What is the likelihood of third parties fielding a candidate in 2024?

General Assembly races 2023

There are a ton of nomination contests – VPAP lists over 50 races ^[1] and while some of the incumbent vs. incumbent matchups will “get worked out”, there is no question that current incumbents are being lulled into a false sense of security that they will not invite a nomination battle.

Very few, if any, are immune from being challenged from within their own party.

It’s going to be a VERY SPICY spring in the Commonwealth to say the least.

I’m reminded of the 2008 Summer Olympic men’s basketball game between the USA Redeem Team captained by Kobe Bryant and Spain which was led by Pau Gasol.

Bryant and Gasol were close friends and teammates on the Los Angeles Lakers at the time.

This is what is going to happen in some of these upcoming nominations:

^[2]That was the pool play game. The USA won that game by 37 (119-82). The gold medal rematch was much closer 118-107. But the tone was set early by Kobe – winning is all that matters.

Aaaannnnd…

The fundraising reports are out!

That means full on nerdling down in here Election Nerd Disneyland. It will take some time to unpack the reports, but clearly some General Assembly incumbents are preparing their post Crossover retirement speeches.

Speaking of Election Nerd Disneyland, the VIP Podcast that I host in conjunction with VCTA – the Broadband Association of Virginia is back in full swing. Here is the latest cut from yesterday:

^[3]and a recent interview with Richmond Mayor Levar Stoney. This one got a little spicy.

^[4]Gear switch #1

Don’t think crude oil and gas prices impact inflation? Check out these two charts. A recession in 2023 is LESS likely, but still possible. I’m going to play the optimist and suggest we will NOT have a recession – the caveat being…gas prices.

 

Correlation or causation? You decide.

The simple fact of the matter is that fossil fuels are so deeply woven into our economy and way of living that a reasonable incentive based approach will bring about the most constructive change with the least amount of economic damage.

One can also do a lot for carbon capture by…planting grass. From a WAPO article: ^[7]

As part of photosynthesis, plants pull carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and store it in their stems, leaves and roots. Unlike trees, grasslands store most of their carbon underground, in their roots and the soil.

In “How the World Really Works – the Science Behind How We Got Here and Where We’re Going” ^[8], author Vaclav Smil describes what he calls the Four Pillars of Civilization – CAPS – Concrete, Ammonia, Plastic, and Steel. All very energy intensive industries.

That’s why it’s easier to attack capitalism writ large vs. actually debating the impact of specific policies.

Switching gears (#2!) now to teen age mental health and its broad societal impact.

Check out these charts:

I think it’s fair to say that we have a serious mental health crisis in this country.

Since it’s not a partisan issue, let’s hope we can make some progress.

On Hold videos from David Crosby who passed away this week at 81.

^{[11] [12]}