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Saxman: New Polling for ’24, Performative Politics, and 24k Left VA Last Year

Virginia FREE Fridays at 3pm this week will feature WPA Intel’s Amanda Iovino breaking down recent polling in Virginia which includes stunning numbers on BOTH the Democratic and Republican fields for 2024.

Need a teaser for that? How about Governor Glenn Youngkin posting a 7-point lead in Virginia over Joe Biden while POTUS still leads former POTUS Donald Trump by 8? Is that enough of a tease? Tons of great information from that poll.

And as always … no charge.

CLICK HERE TO JOIN that Zoom on Friday at 3pm [1]. Reply to this email to be added to the weekly calendar invites.

Last month I opened up a Ranked Choice survey on the 2024 field for Republicans to get a sense of things and… here’s the sense of things based on a very non-scientific survey with 244 responses:


I matched that against the WPA poll and the basics are pretty much the same, but here is one of the values of using the Ranked Choice Voting (RCV) format. One can see Trump has strength in that he has the second highest #1 vote total, but the pull on his overall performance (see above) indicates that many Republicans appear to want to move on. Right now, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis looks to be the top landing zone for the GOP.


The top five right now? 1) DeSantis 2) Trump – followed by a three way for third with an alphabetical order – Nikki Haley, Tim Scott, and Youngkin. If Youngkin’s numbers put Virginia and other Blue leaning states back in play – look out – that’s a whole different allocation field in 2024. Haley and Scott are popular but is South Carolina a real play for the GOP versus Virginia? uh…

Yes, of course, it’s early but this is Election Nerd Disneyland. It’s what we do; however, I was gratified that while our survey was not scientific and not exact, its trends did line up well with the WPA actual poll. Tune in Friday to learn more. #MayorPeteDidWell

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Once again we are reminded that it’s the House of Representatives not the House of Legislators. More’s the pity…

The recent and ongoing theatrics (Vote #6 coming up!) in trying to elect a Speaker of the House reminded me of this quote and scene:

“I’m not an actor, I’m a movie star!” – Peter O’Toole in My Favorite Year.


Set in 1954, My Favorite Year (still holds a 96% rating on Rotten Tomatoes BTW) is about a “swashbuckling actor” (Alan Swann played by Peter O’Toole) from the 1920’s who has been signed to do a television show broadcast LIVE to millions.

It’s a great movie that unfortunately was released when Officer and a Gentleman was running alongside another little flick called E.T. the Extra-Terrestrial. #TimingIsEverything.

That comedy is running alongside the Monday Night Football tragedy in which Buffalo Bills defensive back Damar Hamlin collapsed after tackling Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Tee Higgins. That drama has gripped much of the nation and the outpouring of support for Hamlin has been remarkable. #GoAmerica

Hamlin had a Go Fund Me running to help [5] raise money to buy toys for children in his hometown of McKees Rocks, PA – just a short ride down the Ohio River from the confluence of the Alleghany and Monongahela. It’s basically metro Pittsburgh. The original goal of the charity was $2,500. Now?

It’s has RECEIVED $6,303,970.

With many in the nation closely watching the Hamlin tragedy happening, almost ten percent of the House Republican Conference is hell bent on holding up the work of our federal legislature. #Smart #NewNarrative #WeCan’tGovern

It’s pretty amazing that almost 5 percent of the House of Representatives can stop Congress from getting on with things. If they want to do that, shouldn’t they just run for the Senate? #BuhDumTis

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I checked again, Hamlin’s charity is now at $6.320MM received for the kids of McKees Rocks. #PrayersForDamar

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Back to the Commonwealth of Virginia.


Well, actually it’s the Census Bureau figures but the graphic is from the WSJ editorial page:


CNBC had an article o [8]n the Census figures and linked this article from Smart Asset [9] which featured these nuggets:

It’s no surprise that most of the states with the highest net losses of households earning over $200,000 are traditionally viewed as high-tax states.

New York saw a net outflow of nearly 20,000 high-earning households in 2020, more than any state in our study. While the Empire State gained 9,650 such households, it lost a whopping 29,562 in the same year. California wasn’t far behind, losing a net figure of 19,229 high-earning filers.

Illinois, Massachusetts and Virginia had the third-, fourth- and fifth-largest net outflows of high-earning households in 2020, followed by New Jersey, Maryland, the District of Columbia, Minnesota and Ohio.

Prior to Congressional Midterm Election Day, leaders from both parties in Virginia penned op-eds in the Richmond Times Dispatch (D – Old Soldier) in which they both claimed credit for Virginia’s top rankings in CNBC’s Best States for Business.

It’s a good thing when both parties value an excellent business climate. As I have noted in the past, however, if business is so good (according to the rankers), why are people leaving?

Governor Youngkin seems to get this dichotomy. Just look at the issues he is focusing on thus far – tax reform, workforce development, housing, and mental health.

Maybe that’s why his numbers are holding up so well. Or as an out of state holiday visitor described Governor Youngkin, “He grows on you.”

Know what else is growing? Damar Hamlin’s numbers – now $6,536,000!

See you Friday – click that link or hit reply.

#1 song in the U.S. when My Favorite Year debuted? Jack and Diane.


My favorite year? Certainly NOT 1982.

Hopefully 2023 with this crew:


L to R – Josh McCormack, Nora (23), John (20) Michele, Myself, Mary Kathryn Taylor (29), Sgt Kyle Taylor, Chelsea Saxman, and William (27)

Happy New and Best Year Ever to all!