Saxman: Polling Updates and Midterm Realities

Exclusive! Today at 3pm, WPA Intel’s Amanda Iovino will join Virginia FREE Fridays to go over the 2022 Midterms. Iovino was Glenn Youngkin’s Director of Polling in 2021.

Click HERE to join that Zoom at 3pm.

Last week, Tom Kramer with Christopher Newport University presented the Wason Center polling on Virginia’s 2nd Congressional District.

Click HERE for that Passcode: 3%3mr0vy

Okay … so just what is going to happen on Election Night?

Well, when CNN’s Chris Cilliza writes a column 5 very scary numbers for Democrats in the new CNN poll you can expect what normally happens in the first midterm of an incumbent president polling in the low 40s with a net negative 12.4 points – change.

That’s 4-5 points worse than this time last year when Republicans swept the three statewide offices in Virginia and flipped the House of Delegates back to their control.

Control of the House of Representatives was always going to be a heavy lift for Democrats this year; however, the polling shift to Republicans in Senate races has been quite stunning.

Here is the predictive modeling track by 538 for control of the U.S. Senate:

On October 16th, the forecast was a 66%-34% that Democrats would retain control of the Senate. Today? it’s 55%-45% for the GOP. That’s +32 to -10 for Democrats. Stunning to say the least. Did white suburban women lead this shift?

What also peaked at the Ides of October? Gas prices. Right about the time undecided voters decided.

Other bad signs for Democrats?

Where Presidents Obama and Biden are campaigning less than a week out.

Obama? Milwaukee, Detroit, and Atlanta. It’s not that he’s in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Georgia. Those are battleground states not named Ohio, North Carolina, and Arizona. It’s that he’s NOT in Waukesha, Grand Rapids, and Savannah. Obama in urban centers says that the Black vote/enthusiasm is weak. GOTV (Get Out The Vote) rallies are great but not where your base’s base is. Philly 2022 = Charlottesville/Arlington 2021. #BellwetherVirginia

For Democrats, GOTV rallies in suburbs good, downtown rallies bad.

Biden? Illinois, California, New Mexico, and tomorrow with Obama in Pennsylvania.

Oh, Pennsylvania. That might be a good thing until you realize (for Democrats) that they are going to Philadelphia. Not Bucks County. GOTV problem in Pennsylvania. Remember the night before the election in 2016? Where did Obama and Hillary! Clinton campaign? Center City Philadelphia.

Even Oprah Winfrey is getting in on the Pennsylvania Senate race endorsing LG John Fetterman over her former show guest Dr. Oz.

So it looks bad for Democrats and it looks good for Republicans. Few dispute that.

Let’s toss in some Yeah, buts … so that we all curb our enthusiasm or gloom depending upon your political persuasion. Both tend to accelerate this time of year.

Three – Yeah, buts…

  1. 26 MILLION people have signed up for the Student Debt Relief plan. They all are of voting age.
  2. Early voting numbers are robust to say the least. Many voted BEFORE polling shifted in mid October to the GOP. Here’s VPAP’s Early Voting Dashboard and a visual comparing the last midterms. NOW, this does not mean that Democratic turnout is up – at all – this tells me that the GOP has adjusted its sails with the prevailing winds and is getting voters out early, too. Virginia voting starts 45 days before Election Day.


  3. As we learned last year with the Virginia elections, enthusiasm can get ahead of reality on the ground. Just because current polling is clearly pointing towards a Republican victory night, doesn’t mean that will hold up. There are still a lot of Democrats out there and, charitably, some Republican candidates are suboptimal.

Here are two polling nuggets that I dug out of recent CBS News polling. You hear the pejorative terms MAGA and Woke being bandied about quite a bit this year. But how do they poll? Would you rather be known as MAGA or Woke? MAGA is better than Woke (-25 over -47) but both are negative labels.

Bill Maher recently explored both.

Why Republicans vote for Georgia Senate nominee Herschel Walker:

(Warning it’s a brutal take down of Walker but instructive nonetheless about WHY he might win)

And then Maher on Wokeness:

(Warning – another brutal take down. Hat tip for intellectual honesty)

For those on the current Janet Yellen bandwagon, remember – you could have had Larry Summers:

Twitter avatar for @LHSummers

Lawrence H. Summers @LHSummers
This figure from Torsten Slok at Apollo suggests to me that consensus inflation views are more likely too optimistic than too pessimistic.

2:16 PM ? Oct 25, 2022


Hey how about some On Hold Vids for the 3pm ZOOM? Sure. No charge.

For the upbeat:

For the lament: (yes, Stevie Nicks over Dixie Chicks. And it’s not close.)

And for those further reflecting on days of yore (and because we all need to hear more of this voice):

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