Welcome to election season, Virginia. It’s time to pay attention to who is on the November ballot. But first, let’s get a read on the commonwealth’s political landscape.
A recent Roanoke College poll [1] of the general public shows tough sledding for Democrats on the ballot this year and somewhat friendlier terrain for Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R).
Among poll respondents, 55 percent approve of Youngkin’s job performance, and 51 percent think the commonwealth is moving in the right direction.
That’s all good news for Youngkin, who can continue to make campaign stops for select GOP gubernatorial candidates — regardless of how repugnant [2] they might be — and cultivate his national brand for higher office.
Except president. Fifty-four percent say Youngkin shouldn’t run for president. And if Youngkin does run in a primary against ex-president Donald Trump for the nomination, Trump would win easily [1], 62-28 percent.
Sens. Tim Kaine and Mark R. Warner, call your offices.
Youngkin’s personal approval rating is at 51 percent. Combine this with the job approval number, and it appears Youngkin’s reservoir of political capital is growing. The timing couldn’t be better for his 2023 legislative agenda, which includes proposals for more tax relief and an increasingly long-shot possibility of tighter abortion restrictions.
Whether Youngkin can successfully exploit these paper polling advantages is an open question. An issue not captured in the poll but of prime importance to Youngkin’s prospects is whether the economy tips into a full-blown recession.
As Richmond Federal Reserve President Tom Barkin said [3] back in June about the recession question, “I would caution that no one canceled the business cycle, so one can never fully rule out a recession — it’s just a question of timing.”