Saxman: Midterms, DeSantis Leads Trump in FL, Roe/Dobbs Moving Numbers
First off – please pray for the people of Buchanan County. While many missing people have been located, the flood damage is extensive.
1 – For 2022 midterm polling it is helpful to differentiate between Registered Voters (RVs) and Likely Voters (LVs). Overall RCP average is +1.9 to the GOP but that jumps to +5.7 when one looks at polling of just LVs. Watch for possible increasing enthusiasm among women due to Dobbs.
2 – Here is the 538 Forecast as of this week. They rate the Senate as an ever so slight tilt to the GOP to win control, but the House is heavily favored to flip to the Republicans. Senate would be more likely to flip to GOP control but their candidate quality in Pennsylvania and Georgia is hurting. 538 is an excellent resource for all you election nerds nerdling around here in Virginia – a.k.a Election Nerd Disneyland. Here’s a graphic from them on the impact of the Dobbs ruling thus far:
3 – The bigger impact on the midterms, if you can imagine, than the Dobbs ruling on Roe, will be whether or not Donald Trump decides to announce for re-election BEFORE November. Recent articles suggest he is looking at a September announcement. That’s the absolute last thing the Republicans want, but perhaps teasing it out could be what they quietly want as it would help them with Trump voter turnout. For those of you playing on the home version here is a 538 graphic on 2024 Florida polling Trump v Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. This is why the Donald is making moves sooner rather than later. #ThirdPartyNotFarBehind
From Trump +7 in January to down -12 in July or net minus 19. That tracks similar changes in Iowa and New Hampshire polling – around +3 points per month to DeSantis. Bottom line? The more the GOP hears and sees Ron DeSantis the more they move towards him over Trump. #WinningMatters
4 – Expect to see more of DeSantis on Fox News and other outlets. Fox is the #1 source for males in the higher turnout demographics per the NYT/Siena poll. Interesting demographic breakdown of news sourcing. Look at several cross tabs – where the young voters, Blacks and Hispanics get their information, and where no one does – PBS. #PullThatPlug #HandMeThePillow
5 – This graphic from Axios via Gallup was shocking not that Republicans have little to no confidence in K-12 public education, but that Democrats really ain’t that thrilled with it either – and haven’t been. Would LOVE to see those cross tabs.
6 – Oh here they are:
Let’s see…among Non Whites – Great Deal + Quite A Lot of confidence in K-12? 27%
Some? 42% (five points higher than whites) Very little? 29% When Some + Very Little is over 70? That’s a real electoral problem for Democrats among Blacks, Hispanics, and Asians.
7 – Is this graphic on gas prices good news for Joe Biden? A little. Certainly doesn’t hurt. But the antipathy for inflationary impact across the economy is pretty well baked in at this point. Virginia voters hit the polls with early voting in…70 days.
8 – As we continue down the road of Red/Blue tribalism in which all Them/Us move closer to like mindedness, very few districts swing anymore. Virginia has two – the 2nd (Kaine ‘18 – 53% and Youngkin 55% in ‘21) and the 7th (Kaine 55% in ‘18 and Youngkin ‘21 – 52%). Lots of heat and $ coming for those. 538 forecasts VA 7CD Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger ahead +1.9% and VA 2CD Congresswoman Elaine Luria down 3.1%.
9 – From More in Common – fascinating breakdown on pride in being American. Note drop off from Liberals to Progressive Activists (-31) and from Boomers to Gen Z (-34)
10 – Speaking of Baby Boomers…the long journey of trying to figure out the lyrics to Don McLean’s American Pie is over! A new documentary out on Paramount+ explores all the questions. Here’s a great live video.
One trivia tidbit from the Day the Music Died – February 3, 1959 – when Buddy Holly, the Big Bopper, and Ritchie Valens perished in a plane crash. Big Bopper was given his seat by none other than Holly’s bassist – Waylon Jennings. Valens won a coin toss to get his seat on that fateful flight.
Here’s a video version
Anokha – best lunch in Short Pump and maybe all of RVA
Thai Won On – new real deal Thai restaurant also in Short Pump.
Congratulations out to Travis Smiley, legislative aide to Delegate John Avoli, for his pending nuptials this Saturday night. Smiley gained fame nineteen years ago for drilling our #3 child in the head with a snow ball. This led 3 year old Nora Saxman to prove to the neighborhood her proficiency with profanity . A streak began that day and remains unbroken. #DNA #FBombsFTW