Saxman: Q Poll – Intensity and It’s the Economy – Again

There is a large container ship stuck in the Chesapeake Bay just north of the Bay Bridge. It’s about 1,000 feet long and has almost 5,000 containers on it. Click here for the WUSA9 story on it. 

Ironically, the ship is named Ever Forward and interestingly (according to the news story):

“The Coast Guard has said it hasn’t determined what caused the Ever Forward to run aground. The ship is outside the shipping channel and has not been blocking navigation, unlike last year’s high-profile grounding in the Suez Canal of its sister vessel, the Ever Given, which disrupted the global supply chain for days.”

Maybe the answer to the Coast Guard’s question is “What is outside the shipping channel?”

With control of the board, let’s move to Joe Biden’s Polling Numbers for $800.

Refer a friend

Holy Guacamole, Batman! Quinnipiac’s recent poll came out showing Joe Biden with a 33% approval rating and 54% disapproval. Before we look at the 33%, let’s look at the demographic breakdowns.

This will be Fave/Unfave but see how INTENSE the Disapproval is.

Independents – 26/56.

But the kicker here is Strongly Disapprove is 42 to 13 over Somewhat Disapprove.

Strongly Approve? 11 or (-31) to Strongly Disapprove.

Men – 29/59; Strongly Disapprove 48 to 14 Strongly Approve.

Women – 37/50; Strongly Disapprove 39 to 21 Strongly Approve.

Age 18-34 – 21/58; Strongly Disapprove 35 to 7 Strongly Approve.

SEVEN. Democrats are in real danger in 2024 if Strongly Approve among young/newer voters is in the single digits.

Age 35-49 – 36/52

Age 50-64 – 35/58

Age 65+ – 48-46 but Strongly Disapprove leads Strongly Approve 42 to 33. (+9)

White – 31/59

Black – 63/25

Hispanic – 26/54 with 41% Strongly Disapprove to 12 Strongly Approve.

White College 4yr Degree – 52/42

White w/o 4yr Degree – 20/67. Strongly Disapprove is 56 to 10 Somewhat Disapprove.

Q Poll didn’t have an income tab but YouGov did and it really tells the story even with MUCH better polling for Biden overall.

They have him at 46-49. That is a big difference than 33-54.

Methodologies can differ widely – YouGov is an online survey that asks over 100 questions.

Any who…

In the YouGov survey with income over 100K Biden is at 52-45 (+7). Under 50k, he’s 43-46 (-3) but the middle class? 50 to 100k he is 43-53 (-10).

Summary? It’s the economy again. Or still.

How bad is the Quinnipiac Poll? It’s bloody awful for Biden. Optimistic Democrats will say “We’ve hit rock bottom, the only direction is up!”

That’s also incorrect because the Q Poll was with Registered Voters not Likely Voters and who shows up more at the actual polls in

midterms?

Likely Voters.

Them’s that Strongly Against vs Them’s that Strongly For are the numbers to watch right now.

Democrats won’t back down and should try to localize the elections. Going national is a bad plan.

Cue Tom Petty – Won’t Back Down.