Saxman: Polling Winners and Losers

A couple of lessons relearned from looking at a BUNCH of polls. Charts posted below.

1. It’s not so much what you do, but the manner in which you do it as long as you do your One Thing well.
2. Politics is about relationships and relationships are two way streets.
3. There is no static in human relationships. They either improve or erode.
4. Thirty years later and it’s still the economy.
5. Politics is about the future.

And here we go.

Joe Biden’s Approve/Disapprove numbers since July 1, 2021.

Looks like that cake is baked, right?

Don’t think so?

Look at Right Track/Wrong Track for the last year. Afghanistan withdrawal really accelerated things, but the vibe was negative largely due to cost of living.

Here’s the recent Harvard/Harris polling ^[4] that showed Donald Trump leading Biden by 6 or 47-41 and also leading VP Kamala Harris by 11 or 49-38.

Eleven.

Why highlight that? Well, Harris currently LEADS the Democratic field for 2024 if Biden chooses not to run again.

For the midterms it’s just downright bad for Democrats when you look at the fact that in the Harvard/Harris poll the GOP is a net ZERO on Approve/Disapprove or 50/50.

So far it’s really not about the Republicans being so awesome as it is the Democrats being so awful.

The GOP being Net Zero (irony noted) is the only good news for Democrats who are under water 42-58 or -16.

Here’s how it breaks down:

Independents – GOP +22. Blacks in the low 70s for Democrats while Republicans are closing in on 50/50 among Hispanics. The GOP also leads in age categories MORE LIKELY to vote in midterms and are +12 in the ‘Burbs where are those Swing Districts are right now going to swing back to Republicans.

Let’s look at some issue polling now in which participants were asked to pick their top three issues.

Environment and Climate Change is #9, Education comes in at #18, and January 6th is #26.

Which issues take the Silver? Inflation and Energy prices.

Looking at two trends in a poll of Texas voters. See how their voters have changed in the last six years on immigration and climate change:

There are ZERO national political figures above 50 these days and few are above water. Some who are? Bernie +2, Trump +4, Pence +4, and even Ted Cruz is +2.

The ones with the best net positives? Florida Governor Ron DeSantis +8 or 38-30 and South Carolina Senator Tim Scott +6 or 27-21 (math off in chart). Keep an eye on Scott in the VeepStakes conversation this year and next if Trump runs.

So what IS popular? the U.S. Military, Amazon, and the Police.

Yes, AMAZON!

Maybe it’s because they just go out every day and do their job.