Saxman: Likely Voters and Likely Change
Virginia FREE Friday will move to this coming Monday, April 4th, at 3pm, due to circumstances beyond my control – namely our #3 child moving to Greenville, South Cackalacky.
While I know you are greatly disappointed, fear not!
Monday’s Zoom will be EPIC. Not only we will get all caught up on the Will Smith v Chris Rock debacle (violence is only permissible in Hollywood ON screen where it makes money) we will discuss less important topics like the Ukraine War, inflation, the Virginia Biennial Budget debate (really, how many are paying attention to that?), and the Dos and Don’ts for how business can successfully engage politics.
So many recent examples of businesses making some good and, frankly, some dumb political decisions. Honestly, one has to wonder what world are some of these folks living in…
What’s also moving and seemingly out of Joe Biden’s and the Democrat’s control? Approval ratings.
Pay attention to the Real Clear Politics Averages of Registered Voters and LIKELY Voters.
- How excited are Democrats to show up and vote this fall? Remember, the progressives have never been enamored with Biden. Some groups on the left might even sit this one out as an attention getter. Cue Sheriff Buford T. Justice.
- Will the Republicans find a way to blow a massive lead by having their primary fights turn off general election voters?
- How much of a role will Donald Trump play? And will it be a net positive or negative? Trump is leading Biden in March polling. Not bigly, but better than he ever has.
- Will state redistricting blunt the polling advantage of the Republicans? How will that impact the national narrative? Will Independents be even more likely to throw the bums out if Democrats are seen as gerrymandering?
This fall is lining up to be an absolute disaster for the White House, House of Representatives, U.S. Senate, and state legislators who are on the ballot with a (D) next to their name.
President Joe Biden’s Job Approval.
Okay. That’s bad.
Look at the recent polling and trend line. YouGuv is an online survey which will skew younger and more progressive. Without that -4? Biden is -14.
And to make matters worse for the Democrats, look at the RVs and LVs generically and without the online skewed polls YouGov and Morning Consult which, by the way, are also moving toward the GOP.
Congressional Generic Ballot
Total average is +3.6.
For LIKELY voters? +9.5 !
So quick update on the fam…
#3 child, Nora, was in the process of moving to Greenville, South Cackalacky, when the ECM (Electronic Control Module) gave out and stopped her loaded SUV cold in the middle of a very busy street in the Tar Heel State.
Thankfully, local North Cackalacky residents sprung to the rescue and were able to push the car to a safe spot off the main road. Nora and her mom/my wife Michele eventually were able to get the car to a GM dealer, rent a U-Haul van, offload their cargo, reload said cargo, and arrive safely exhausted in Greenville late last night.
Due to supply chain issues, we have NO idea when the ECM will be available. These are the very disruption anecdotes that feed a narrative and eventually become data.
Final decision? Change.
That’s all it takes these days. People vote AGAINST these days.
What are politicians for? Being against.
Peace out! On the road to South Cackalacky.
Back tomorrow for John’s volleyball match – Randolph-Macon College is hosting the Banana Slugs of UC – Santa Cruz.