With the exception of possible recounts in two House of Delegates races, Virginia’s long 2021 election season is over. Good riddance to all that.
And a most hearty welcome to the 2022 congressional midterm elections. Let’s make a few predictions about the outcomes of those contests right now: 9th Congressional District Rep. H. Morgan Griffith (R) will win reelection. The fight has gone entirely out of the Fightin’ 9th, having become a formidable Republican bastion where Democrats are in danger of becoming a rumor rather than a political force.
Let’s also stipulate that in the 6th Congressional District, Rep. Ben Cline (R) will win reelection. The Valley has been friendly to Republicans for years, and there is no reason to expect that will change, even after redistricting.
And let’s not forget those other shoo-ins for 2022: Democratic Reps. Robert C. “Bobby” Scott, Don McEachin, Don Beyer and Gerald E. Connolly.
It’s probably fair to place 10th District Rep. Jennifer Wexton (D) near the winner’s circle. And there’s a good case for 1st District Rep. Rob Wittman (R) to be there, too. It’s more of a stretch to include 5th District Rep. Bob Good (R). Redistricting is his biggest concern, and if the Virginia Supreme Court redraws the 5th to include suburban portions of the Richmond metro, then Good’s brand of Trumpish populism may fall flat.
More precarious still is 2nd District Rep. Elaine Luria (D). Though Luria’s Hampton Roads district has elected her twice, its vote-rich Virginia Beach anchor went for Republican Glenn Youngkin for governor on Nov. 2 — a change from 2017, when Democrat Ralph Northam won there.
It’s probably fair to place 10th District Rep. Jennifer Wexton (D) near the winner’s circle. And there’s a good case for 1st District Rep. Rob Wittman (R) to be there, too. It’s more of a stretch to include 5th District Rep. Bob Good (R). Redistricting is his biggest concern, and if the Virginia Supreme Court redraws the 5th to include suburban portions of the Richmond metro, then Good’s brand of Trumpish populism may fall flat.
More precarious still is 2nd District Rep. Elaine Luria (D). Though Luria’s Hampton Roads district has elected her twice, its vote-rich Virginia Beach anchor went for Republican Glenn Youngkin for governor on Nov. 2 — a change from 2017, when Democrat Ralph Northam won there. This change doesn’t necessarily spell doom for Luria. Republicans must first get through a crowded primary, which could become messy before it’s over.
The big unknown is redistricting. The Virginia Supreme Court may need to add voters to the 2nd District – possibly taking them from the 1st District. New voters always pose a risk to incumbents. Adding several thousand new voters to the 2nd could make what has long been one of Virginia’s more competitive districts even more so.