2021 Virginia Turnout Update – 31 October

Today’s update for the model includes the early voting data from yesterday, the 30th, which was the final day for early voting. In theory, this could be the final update, but if there is a substantial number of mail-in votes reported tomorrow or Tuesday, I’ll provide further updates taking them into account.

The methodology and assumptions I have used so far can be found here. The key factor is the assumption that the early vote will be roughly 32.5% of the total turnout.

If that holds, the projected turnout comes just shy of 3.5 million, which puts this projection well on the higher side of the prediction range.

Assuming the number of registered voters didn’t increase from 2020 to 2021 – and please note that history implies it falls slightly at the point of the quadrennial cycle – the model is projecting turnout of roughly 58.5% of registered voters – which would be the highest percentage since 1993.

• Early vote totals, 2021: 1,139,503
• Projected total votes: 3,497,739 
• Change since yesterday: 4.8-5.6%