2021 Virginia Turnout Update – 30 October

Today’s update for the model includes the early voting data from yesterday, the 29th. Only Saturday, 10/31/2020 is still included in the analysis. The methodology and assumptions I used can be found here, but increasingly, the key factor is the assumption that the early vote will be roughly 32.5% of the total turnout.

If that holds, assuming the number of registered voters didn’t increase from 2020 to 2021 – and please note that history implies it falls slightly at the point of the quadrennial cycle – the model is projecting turnout of over 55% of registered voters – which would be the highest percentage since 1993.

• Current early vote totals, 2021: 1,031,668
• Early vote totals for remaining days in 2020: 143,255
• Projected range of early votes: 1,080,409 to 1,086,964
• Projected range of total votes: 3,316,379 to 3,336,470
• Change since yesterday: 7.6-7.8%