Today’s update for the model includes the early voting data from yesterday, the 28th. Only Friday and Saturday from the last week of early voting in 2020 are still included. The methodology and assumptions I used can be found here .
One additional note, assuming the number of registered voters didn’t increase from 2020 to 2021 – and please note that history implies it falls slightly at the point of the quadrennial cycle – the model is projecting a turnout rate of just over 53% of registered voters – which would be the highest percentage since 1993.
- Current early vote totals, 2021: 936,981
- Early vote totals for remaining days in 2020: 294,655
- Projected range of early votes: 1,037,258 to 1,046,485
- Projected range of total votes: 3,183,896 to 3,212,219
- Change since yesterday: 3.5-3.6%