Saxman: Shock poll from NJ Shows Republican leads among Very Likely Voters +3

Yes, Virginia is a VERY VERY Close race – it’s all a Toss Up.

NJ is the only other state with a gubernatorial election. The same poll that showed Youngkin this week with an ever-so-slight edge shows a tightening race in NJ.

New Jersey’s gubernatorial election has a new poll out from Emerson that show Democratic incumbent Phil Murphy leading by just six points 50 to 44. But when one reads the report we see some interesting data.

Among those who have already voted, Murphy leads 76% to 24%. Murphy also leads among those who are somewhat likely to vote, 45% to 40%. Among very likely voters, Ciattarelli leads 48% to 45%. Independents are also leaning towards Ciattarelli, 56% to 32%. (emphasis added)

Check out the trend line over the summer and into the fall.

It’s not just Virginia that has a close election this year.

Here’s a good source of information – the VPAP Big Donation Tracker. It’s updated daily. #FollowTheMoney

We’re also going to get the last of the campaign finance reports very soon.

If you look at the tracker you see that some House Democrats are getting a lot of late money down the stretch – including Del. Kelly Convirs-Fowler and Del. Clint Jenkins. Convirs-Fowler won in 2019 by 9.2 and Jenkins won by 12.8.

Clearly there is some worry there. Another House Democrat to look out for is Del. Mike Mullin. Hearing reports of a possible long shot upset there. While unlikely given the static nature of the statewide races there is movement as well in that district Mullin won by 11.4 two years ago.

This election looks like it will come down to a Republican tidal surge meeting a wall of Democratic money.

The amount of financial strength the Democrats have cannot be underestimated. As enthusiastic and motivated as Republicans are with just eight days to go, one has to remember that there are a LOT more people who voted Democrat in 2020 than Republican.

How many more voted for Biden over Trump in 2020? 450,000.

If all things were equal with both parties having the same amount of money and the same number of people who voted for them last year, Republicans would be the prohibitive favorites.

This thing is tied. Governor, Lt. Governor, Attorney General, and Control of the House. TIED.

It’s all a Toss Up.