2021 Virginia Turnout Update – 24 October

Today’s update for the model includes the early voting data from yesterday, the 23rd. All seven days from the last week of early voting last year are still included; Sunday from last year, while minimal, will be dropped from tomorrow’s update. The methodology and assumptions I used can be found here.

• Current early vote totals, 2021: 653,996
• Early vote totals for remaining days in 2020 (all seven): 784,776
• Projected range of early votes: 906,674 to 921,062
• Projected range of total votes: 2,783,062 to 2,827,229
• Change since yesterday: 5-7%