But still better than Trump’s in 2017.
Pay attention to where Terry McAuliffe and Glenn Youngkin are holding GOTV rallies.McAuliffe is bringing in nationally recognized Democrats, whereas Youngkin is having a bus tour without national recognized Republicans.
McAuliffe is holding rallies in the following localities (listed here with their 2020 Biden %).
Norfolk (Stacy Abrams) 71%
Fairfax (Abrams) 70%
Charlottesville (Abrams, DNC Chair Jamie Harrison) 85%
Arlington (Biden) 80%
Richmond -VCU (Obama) 82%
Eastern Prince William H (Harris) – 2018 79% for Tim Kaine
Eastern Henrico (Jill Biden) – 2018 77% for Tim Kaine
This clearly indicates that McAuliffe is focused on driving out base Democratic voters.
Youngkin, on the other hand, announced his bus tour stops [1]with stops over the weekend in Hanover, Richmond, Chesterfield, Western Henrico, Yorktown, Newport News, Chesapeake, Virginia Beach, Norfolk, Portsmouth, and Isle of Wight.
SOO many dynamics at play as the campaigns finish up trying to get their vote targets to the polls.
Here are two polls that highlight the drag Democrats are feeling now.
Quinnipiac released a poll [2] and look at how Independents answer this question noting the deep divide between College Degrees and Non College Degrees. That divide is more like a canyon.
Gallup’s new poll shows the drop off for Biden [3] is steeper than Obama’s in 2009 and he’s down 8 more points than Obama (overall) BUT he’s also 8 points higher than Donald Trump in his first year.
Part of the reason could be inflation pressures driven by higher energy prices.
Geopolitical Futures has an excellent article on that issue. [4] Like most things, it’s complicated with many factors; however, it ultimately comes down to supply and demand.
Elections are also complicated with many factors but ultimately it comes down to who actually shows up. Shocking, I know…
While there is more enthusiasm and motivation for Republicans this year in Virginia, remember that betting against Democrats here in statewide elections is not a path to great fortune.
In 2020, Joe Biden won 2.4 MM votes to Trump’s 1.9MM or 4.3MM total. Expectations are around 3.1 to 3.2 MM will turn out. So, 1.6 MM should be sufficient to win. The Democrats just have more voters to target than do Republicans.
This election feels like one of those football games where the away team is staging a furious comeback and the home team is playing prevent defense by giving up yards and points.
Is the home team’s lead wide enough to hold off a final drive loss?
Virginia Republicans are in their two minute offense and driving. They need a touchdown with a two point conversion (8 points) to win.
A field goal (3 points) won’t do it.
On hold videos: Prince, Whitney Houston, and the Immaculate Reception
You’re welcome.
Prince halftime show – in the rain, in heels, and on a slippery stage:
Whitney Houston’s Star Spangled Banner at the 1991 Super Bowl – best version ever IMHO.
and, of course, the greatest play in NFL history the Immaculate Reception which created the Feast of the Immaculate Reception on the night before Christmas Eve. Seriously, this call by Curt Gowdy was the on hold message at our company for years.