Saxman: Polls, Charts, and the Stones! Oh My! Trend Favors the Party Out of Office

Remember the 1992 campaign “It’s the Economy, Stupid” – It’s back.

Hearing from folks on the Republican side these statements:

It just feels different

The enthusiasm is real. Massive crowd last night

Based on our numbers, I’d rather be us than them

And from Democrats:

I still think Terry wins

Folks are really worried

I’m disappointed in the young people. They’re not showing up.

The polls still averaging out at +2.5 for McAuliffe, but Democrats are very worried and rightfully so.

I’ve attached some useful charts to show you the underlying tension in this very close race that is trending more and more towards the Republicans.

The phrase “timing is everything” could not be more apt than in reference to this election cycle in Virginia.

Again, the question is do the Republicans have enough time to overcome the Democratic lead in Virginia?

From 538:


But…Very Bad and Fairly Bad are at 62% describing the U.S. economy while Fairly Good is trending down. See those directions and the dates?

From Civiqs:

The all important Right Track/Wrong Track numbers. See the trend?

How about Joe Biden’s numbers? How’s Joe doing? Underwater by 13.

He won the 2020 election with 51.3% and today he’s at 39.

How about folks concerns about COVID? 58% Not at all plus A Little Concerned; while Moderately at just 26%. And this was before Merck’s new treatment drug was absorbed by the electorate.

What do I see and hear more about? Gas prices. And for good reason.

Great analysis from Breaking Points with Krystal Ball and Saagar Enjeti:

Here’s Andrew Yang, former Democratic candidate for president, on Good Morning America about his new political party.

And my favorite Rolling Stone song about politics:

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