Saxman: Virginia’s Silly Season Gets Real – Real Quick. Filing Deadline Could Cull the Herd
We’ll know later today which of the very many candidates for Virginia’s Big Three statewide offices qualify for their party’s nomination by filing the requisite number of signed petitions or convention filing fees.
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Thanks to Virginia Hospital and Healthcare Association’s Julian Walker for emailing the vaccine sign up link today https://vaccinate.virginia.gov
Yes, it’s filing deadline day. I think a better name would be Culling The Herd Day, but I’m sure someone in the Pro-Herd Crowd would be grossly offended and who needs all that noise anyway.
Democrats have to file petitions and Republicans have to pay a filing fee for their unassembled convention.
Let’s run down the list of candidates most likely to make the cut and we’ll do so with an update on Candidate Rankings.
- Terry McAuliffe – he’s still #1 and is probably raising a ton on money. IN.
- State Senator Jennifer McClellan – my sense is she has solid grip on the silver at this stage of the race. She has introduced some very detailed policy proposals lately and showed real class in the face of last week’s racist attacks from her senate colleague, the junior senator from Chesterfield, Amanda Chase. IN.
- Former Delegate Jennifer Carroll Foy – known in Democratic circles as JCF, Carroll Foy has cranked up some solid fundraising numbers and as such probably clears the deadline bar with ease. IN.——————————————
- Lt. Governor Justin Fairfax – we really don’t see much out of his campaign. His fundraising is lagging the field. I wouldn’t be surprised if Fairfax is out today.
- Delegate Lee Carter – given he faces a contested primary for his House of Delegates’ seat, Carter might be facing the same decision as others in the Democratic LG race and now is the time for that decision to cut bait with an eye on 2025.
Republicans – Filing fee for convention $14,000.
- Delegate Kirk Cox – paid and in.
- Pete Snyder – paid and in.
- Glenn Youngkin – paid and in.
- Senator Amanda Chase – probably paid and in. Sadly.———————————
- Sergio de la Pena – probably has raised this to qualify.
- Peter Doran – also probably raised the 14k to qualify.
- Former Roanoke Sheriff Octavia Johnson – unknown given late entry. I’d bet against this candidate qualifying.
- Merle Rutledge – candidate on You Tube who shows up at some events. Hard to tell if he raised the money for the fee.
Given the nature of the Ranked Choice Voting in the 37 unassembled locations, these drop outs could significantly impact the outcome.
- Delegate Sam Rasoul – well funded, organized, and energetic this campaign makes the cut. IN
- Delegate Hala Ayala – she decided to not seek re-election for her House seat and is focused on LG. Ayala clears the bar for the filing deadline. IN
- Norfolk Councilwoman Andria McClellan (no relation to Jennifer) – is organized and determined with a real path to the nomination. She very likely checks this box. IN
- Delegate Elizabeth Guzman – as noted prior to last week’s vacation, it’s decision time for Guzman. She has a real fight on her hand for her House seat and is lagging behind Rasoul for the LG nod. She probably can qualify for this ballot, but the better long term play might be to drop out, endorse Rasoul, and set her sights on 2025. Her personal story is not going away and her name ID is growing. IN, but…
- Sean Perryman – although his campaign kicked him in the shins by saying he’s the only Black candidate in this field, Perryman has run a solid campaign up to now with probably the best introduction ad of the cycle. He probably qualifies. Probably IN.———————————
- Delegate Mark Levine – this campaign like several others has a decision to make – run for LG or try to save his House seat. My guess is Levine opts to catch the House rabbit vs missing out on both House and LG rabbits.
- Paul Goldman – this campaign has been hard to get a handle on. Goldman is the long time veteran in this race and should qualify, but I think he falls below the cut line. Just a gut feel.
- Xavier Warren – again hard to tell but not hearing much from this new candidate. Not much fundraising or free/earned media even on social media indicates this could be his last week before he endorses another candidate.
Republicans – $2,900 filing fee.
- Delegate Glenn Davis – paid and IN
- Former Delegate Tim Hugo – paid and IN.
- Former Delegate Winsome Sears – paid and IN.
- Lance Allen – he paid. IN.
- Puneet Ahluwalia – paid and IN.
- Mark Herring – he’ll make it. IN.
- Jay Jones – he’ll make it as well. IN.
This race is still rated as an Upset Special – watch this one closely.
Republicans – $12,000 filing fee.
- Delegate Jason Miyares – paid and IN.
- Leslie Haley – paid and IN.
- Chuck Smith – likely paid and IN given length of time in race.———————
- Jack White – hard to tell given very late entry.
Having returned from a glorious vacation of cooking for seventeen, mainly spring breaking high school seniors, in south Louisiana last week, it took no time for Virginia’s Silly Season to cancel a relaxed and rejuvenated mind.
Spring in Virginia politics is like the daily pollen car wash. It’s that morning muck that cakes up the windshield worldview.
This is when political campaigns send out unmitigated crap attack ads that make no sense but try to instill just the tiniest element of angst and fear in order to generate a negative response towards an otherwise decent person.
The Virginia GOP dominant majority in General Assembly actually managed the Commonwealth well over the last twenty years as they had to work with a Democratic governor 75% of the time. But eventually, the engine of innovation wears down. They could use some of the Ideas Retreats of the past vs. conventions which boil down to who is more pro-gun, anti-gay, or anti-abortion. As if there are no other issues that matter to Republican convention goers. #IdeasMatter #DividedGovernmentWorks
On the other hand, we have many Democratic candidates who seem content on coming up with Elizabeth Warren level of detail in their policy proposals. The only problem there is that many of these ideas are just plain bad for business. Really bad, unless you work in the economic departments of the Carolinas, Florida, Georgia, and Tennessee. Also really expensive and without a shred of intellectual honesty in how to pay for or implement them in way that passes judicial review.
Such is the nature of our republican democracy devoid of federal fiscal sanity better known as The Grand Buffet of Policy Pleasure.
So, what happens is that the campaigns and candidates take a holiday from reality as both parties resort to middle school level tactics destined for the social media toilet.
Republicans seem to attack each other for being too close to China if a candidate dares order Kung Pao take out, while Democrats deploy demographic purity tests which will inevitably lead them all to release their DNA spittle results from Ancestry.com.
Just yesterday morning, I received an email from Unite Conservatives VA attacking former Delegate Tim Hugo for being too close to Big Tech given his professional livelihood of working on science and technology policy. Scary stuff. The guy actually feeds his family while accumulating more than a rudimentary level of knowledge about the largest industry of the future. (This group will be hanging their heads in shame later this week by the way….)
Tuesday, I was forwarded a text exchange where Democratic Lt. Governor candidates were engaged in determining who was actually African American. Sean Perryman claimed that he was the only African American in the race. His campaign staffer, Jess, wrote this text in a blast:
“Sean is the only Black candidate in a crowded field, has a progressive vision, & will make sure VA works for everyone.”
The only problem with that is that two of his opponents disagreed vehemently that Perryman is the only black candidate. That’s because Xavier Warren is African American and Delegate Hala Ayala is Afro-Latina.
Cue the Ancestry spit test outrage on social media threads. Soon we will hear attacks like Republican or Democrat In Name Only devolve into Not Black Enough (NBE) or Not Baptist Enough, Very Hispanic but Lapsed Catholic, complete with outrage hashtags.
Seriously, can any candidate run on safe and paved streets, good schools, and economic growth?
Meanwhile the rest of us – the top 99% – are “mad as a march hare” getting ready to bust out of our COVID caves in search of adults ready to take on the real challenges we actually face that don’t require piling more debt on our kids’ credit cards.
And don’t look Inside the Beltway where not only did the new majority just throw 1.9 Trillion (1,900,000,000,000.00) on the Fed Card, they are actually looking at ANOTHER 3.0 Trillion (3,000,000,000,000.00) to pass down to the unsuspecting next generations.
Apparently, our economy needs rescuing from its dismal 6.2% unemployment rate and historically low interest rates. Who’s going to rescue the kids in 30 years? (if we make it that long)?
During vacation I had a conversation with a construction company co-owner whose wife is the lead compliance officer at one of the largest casinos in Louisiana. Given the relationship with casinos and Native American tribes, the Bureau of Indian Affairs is heavily involved in their regulations. She manages that.
Well, the casino recently had to shut down. Not because of a COVID outbreak mind you, but rather because the employees didn’t show up to work. All but one – ONE – didn’t show up for work because … they had received their recent stimulus checks.
Yup, their grandkids and great grandkids paid them not to work.
Back at the ranch, House Democrats are actually considering overturning a state certified congressional election from Iowa and unseating a woman from Congress. This comes during Sydney Powell’s moonwalk back from her flat out lies about the 2020 presidential results.
In sum – again sadly – both major political parties are trapped in pre-pubescent remake of Lord of the Flies. Lies and excessive exaggerations for the sake of cable ratings, clicks, and fundraising have shoved out sanity.
It’s absolutely stunning how we allow these people to continue this escape from the decisions that obviously have to be made.
Imagine an oncologist saying, “Let’s see how large we can get this malignant growth before we decide anything. Sound good?”
Thank GOD for the NCAA tournament and Major League Baseball.
From the KenPom rankings if you are doing a Sweet Sixteen Bracket or just betting the games: Seven of the top Eleven best defenses are in the Sweet 16. Overall NCAA ranking in ()
- Loyola Chicago (1)
- Alabama (3)
- USC (5)
- Gonzaga (7)
- Michigan (9)
- Arkansas (10)
- Houston (11)
And for a little trip down a GREAT memory lane:
Used a great recipe from Jack Mitchell of the Murfreesboro Mitchells for baby back ribs while on vacation.
Take the back skin off the ribs, spread yellow mustard over entire rib and season liberally with Paul Prudhomme’s Magic BBQ blend of spice rub. Wrap in heavy duty foil for several hours or overnight. Bake in oven for 3.5 hours at 225. Remove and brush on Sweet Baby Rays Spicy BBQ sauce and grill both sides to create a nice char. Boom. You’re done – bellies will soon be full and happy.