Saxman: Rankings Galore! Statewide campaigns, State Job Losses, and State Losing/Gaining People

By Chris Saxman

Yesterday, I released the updated rankings of the 29 announced candidates for Virginia’s Big Three statewide offices – Governor, Lt. Governor, and Attorney General.

Yes. 29 candidates.

The rankings are based primarily but not solely on the strength of the fundraising, donor base, and the Cash on Hand (COH) of the campaigns to date. Other factors included are subjective, especially Name ID. At this stage of the race, Name ID is a tough category to gauge without publicly available data to support it.

I hear from a lot of campaigns (yes, both parties) and they share internal numbers to a degree.

Things are still shaking out, but here’s where we are so far:

Statewide Campaign Rankings

Democratic Races – 15 Candidates

Governor – 5

Terry McAuliffe

Former Delegate Jennifer Carroll Foy

State Senator Jennifer McClellan

Lt. Governor Justin Fairfax

Delegate Lee Carter

Lt. Governor – 8

Delegate Sam Rasoul

Delegate Hala Ayala

Norfolk City Council Member Andria McClellan

Sean Perryman – Fairfax NAACP leader

Delegate Elizabeth Guzman

Delegate Mark Levine

Xavier Warren

Paul Goldman

Attorney General – 2

Attorney General Mark Herring

Delegate Jay Jones

Republican Races – 14 Candidates

Governor – 6

State Senator Amanda Chase

Delegate Kirk Cox

Pete Snyder

Glenn Youngkin

State Senator Emmett Hanger

Sergio de la Pena

Lt. Governor – 5

Delegate Glenn Davis

Former Delegate Tim Hugo

Lance Allen

Puneet Ahluwalia

Former Delegate Winsome Sears

Attorney General – 3

Delegate Jason Miyares

Chesterfield Supervisor Leslie Haley

Chuck Smith

I still have this feeling that Republican State Senator Bill Stanley will join the AG race. Delegate Miyares has many endorsements on his website, but no state senators beyond the Hampton Roads region. Just an observation.

Since the release of that ranking – which led to several calls from campaigns wondering why they are where they are (*hint* – it’s because that’s where you are), I have gone through the campaign websites of all 29 candidates and I have come to one obvious conclusion – the Republicans don’t know where they are going and the Democrats do.

As I have said repeatedly, one of the #1 Rules of Politics is that the politics is about the future, not the past.

Maybe it’s the absorption of the Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement into the mainstream of the GOP or maybe (and more likely) it’s the fact that the Republicans don’t know how to apply Trumpism at the state level.

They have been so used to defending Trump that they have not been able to create an intellectual infrastructure behind the movement. Perhaps this campaign will start that process, but so far? Nada. Niente. Rien. There is nothing new to see here.

What’s less painful?

A) Virginia Republicans having a policy conversation.

B) The ol’ “What do you want for dinner;” “I don’t know. What do you want?” conversation.

C) Drilling a live tooth.

Define problem. Offer solution. Rinse and repeat.

Democrats on the other hand have a pretty good idea where they are going. Not that it’s necessarily a good direction for business, mind you, but at least they know where they are going. For many voters, it’s easier to follow people who know where there are going.

Moving further out into the economy, let’s look at where jobs are recovering and where people are moving.

Lead editorial in today’s WSJ, The Two Track Jobs Recovery, lists the top ten states with the Least Job Losses (Idaho, Utah, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, Nebraska, South Carolina, Arizona, Arkansas, and Indiana) and the Most Job Losses (California, New Jersey, Minnesota, Rhode Island, New Hampshire, Vermont, Massachusetts, New York, Michigan, and Hawaii).

The listing is in percent Year Over Year (YOY) December 2019 to December 2020.

Everyone of the 10 best states are Right to Work states and all the worst states, save Michigan, are Forced Union states. Policies matter.

UHaul released their State Ranking migration survey from 2020 and as well as their City Rankings.

United Van Lines also released their Inbound and Outbound State Rankings as well.

Lastly, how about a Super Sky Point to Cloris Leachman who passed away yesterday.

Here’s my favorite scene of hers when she plays Frau Blucher in Young Frankenstein. And NO Blucher does not mean “glue” in German. Turns out that director Mel Brooks was just having some fun with a classic cinematic “villain” gag from old melodramas.

Leachman’s expressions are just genius level.

Chris Saxman represented the 20th District in the Virginia House of Delegates from 2002-10. A businessman and active member of the community, he is Executive Director of Virginia FREE, a non-partisan, non-profit that informs the business community in order to advance free enterprise and responsible, pro-business government. He and his wife Michele live in Richmond.

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