Holsworth: Jan. 21, 2021, Virginia Covid-19 Update

By Dr. Bob Holsworth

Editor’s note: Bearing Drift is grateful to Dr. Bob Holsworth for permission to share his daily Virginia coronavirus updates. For more, follow him on Facebook.

COVID-19 UPDATE, JANUARY 21

We are beginning to see a moderation of the post-holiday huge upward spikes, though the death toll from the latest spike has been staggering. The vaccine rollout continues to be highly problematic.

1. Hospitalizations and Deaths

Thankfully, the upward spike in hospitalizations may have peaked and we are beginning to experience a moderate decline. In my last post 7 days ago, there were 3196 hospitalized COVID-19 patients. Today, the Virginia Hospital and Healthcare Association (VHHA) reported 3011 COVID-19 patients. The number of patients in ICUs also moderately declined from 583 to 545.

At the same time, the number of weekly COVID-19 deaths (which lag cases and hospitalizations) remains staggeringly high. In the last 7 days, 316 Virginians have passed away from COVID-19, raising the toll of the pandemic to 5,940. I can recall early on when we were shocked by estimates of 750 total deaths.

I am hoping that the delivery of vaccines to long-term care facilities and the moderating hospital/case numbers significantly reduce the number of deaths.

2. Case Rise and Test Positivity Moderate as Well

In the last 3 days, we are also seeing a moderation in case numbers. The case numbers have been 4526, 4515, and 4013. These are sill very high, but much lower than the 6757-9914 range that had been reported the previous 3 days.

In terms of the three major metros, the worst situation is currently in Hampton Roads that is actually reporting higher numbers recently than NOVA.

Test Positivity has also moderated from 16.8% to 13.2%.

3. The Vaccine Rollout Debacle

A. Virginia and the Nation

At the moment, it’s not getting much better. According to the Washington Post yesterday, Virginia is 39th among the states and the District of Columbia in the percentage of the population that has been vaccinated, currently 3.8%.

The national average is 4.3% and 17 states and the District of Columbia have vaccinated at least 5% of their population. Warren Fiske at Virginia Public Media’s Politifact has suggested that Governor Northam’s statement that he is “pleased with the progress” is unsupported by the evidence. The Governor’s stance is very different from those of Democratic governors in Colorado, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, and New York who have become strong voices calling for a massively larger federal effort.

In fact, there’s far too much confusion about what the statewide plan might be (two cheers to anyone who can explain it in 30 seconds or less), how citizens can actually obtain information about what to do, and why in the world it was announced that citizens 65 and older would be included in 1-B only to be informed when they signed up that “I-B” is really not “1-B”and that they are actually in a lower priority status than other “1-B” occupants.

The confusion is such that I saw this morning that Chesterfield County has found it necessary to inform residents that the Chesterfield Health District reports to the Virginia Department of Health and not the county government.

B. The Supply Problem

While there are significant differences in how states are distributing the vaccines, the most serious problem at the moment is the limited supply of available vaccine.

President Biden has articulated a goal of providing 100 million shots in 100 days. This is better as a sound bite than a solution. What it actually means is that we would continue on a marginally higher rate of vaccination until May.

If most of the 100 million doses were still to be provided by Moderna and Pfizer (which require 2 doses for a complete vaccination), we would still be in the 1-B phase. It is estimated that there are 180 million Americans who are either essential workers or over the age of 65.

Hopefully, other vaccines such as Johnson and Johnson and AstraZeneca will become available in the interim, but J&J has already said that its manufacturing production is lagging behind schedule.

In any case, more attention, from both the government and the media has to be focused on the issue of enlarging the vaccine supply and addressing the obstacles to doing so. This should be priority 1, 2, and 3.