This post is the fourth in an irregular series of posts on how Joe Biden flipped five states in last month’s election – and no, it wasn’t fraud. I have already addressed Pennsylvania [1], Michigan [2], and Wisconsin [3].
The final city in the Trump campaign’s fact-free election-theft narrative (which they are still pushing [4]) is Atlanta. I’ve already debunked the nonsensical claim that Biden outperformed Hillary Clinton in Philadelphia [1], Detroit [2], and Milwaukee [3]. In fact, Biden’s margin was smaller than Clinton’s in the first two cities, and in Milwaukee, Biden’s gain was nowhere near enough to flip Wisconsin. Atlanta also showed a small Biden gain, but once again, it was the suburbs – not the center city – that moved a key swing state from red to blue.
In 2016, Trump defeated Clinton by 211,141 votes in Georgia. How did Biden make up the votes?
Not in Atlanta (source: GA Secretary of State’s office [5]):
- 2016: Clinton – 171,130, Trump 34,480; Margin = 136,650
- 2020: Biden – 207,670, Trump 41,492; Margin = 165,728
- Biden net gain = 29,078
That gain by Biden was less than one-seventh of what he needed to flip Georgia. For the story of how Biden actually won the state, we must once again look to the suburbs – here defined as the 10 counties surrounding Atlanta and part of the Atlanta Regional Commission [6] (source: Dave Leip [7]).
- Fulton and DeKalb County (Atlanta has territory in both)
- 2016 Fulton: Clinton – 297,051, Trump – 117,783; Margin = 179,268
- 2020 Fulton: Biden – 380,212, Trump – 137,247; Margin = 242,965
- 2016 DeKalb: Clinton – 251,370, Trump – 51,468; Margin = 199,902
- 2020 DeKalb: Biden – 308,162, Trump – 58,377; Margin = 249,785
- Biden net gain outside Atlanta = 84,502
- Cobb County
- 2016: Clinton – 160,121, Trump – 152,912; Margin = 7,209
- 2020: Biden – 221,847, Trump – 165,436; Margin = 56,411
- Biden net gain = 49,202
- Clayton County
- 2016: Clinton – 78,220, Trump – 12,645; Margin = 65,575
- 2020: Biden – 95,466, Trump – 15,811; Margin = 79,655
- Biden net gain = 14,080
- Gwinnett County
- 2016: Clinton – 166,153, Trump – 146,989; Margin = 19,165
- 2020: Biden – 241,994, Trump – 166,400; Margin = 75,594
- Biden net gain = 56,430
- Rockdale County
- 2016: Clinton – 23,255, Trump – 13,478; Margin = 9,777
- 2020: Biden – 31,237, Trump – 13,014; Margin = 18,223
- Biden net gain = 8,446
- Fayette County
- 2016: Clinton – 23,284, Trump – 35,048; Margin = -11,764
- 2020: Biden – 33,062, Trump – 37,965; Margin = -4,894
- Biden net gain = 6,870
- Cherokee County
- 2016: Clinton – 25,231, Trump – 80,649; Margin = -55,418
- 2020: Biden – 42,779, Trump – 99,585; Margin = -56,806
- Biden net loss = 1,388
- Henry County
- 2016: Clinton – 50,057, Trump – 45,724; Margin = 4,333
- 2020: Biden – 73,443, Trump – 48,259; Margin = 25,184
- Biden net gain = 20,852
- Douglas County
- 2016: Clinton – 31,005, Trump – 24,817; Margin = 6,188
- 2020: Biden – 42,814, Trump – 25,454; Margin = 17,360
Biden net gain = 11,172
- Biden total net suburban gain = 250,165
This is where Biden erased Clinton’s 200K+ vote deficit. He gained a quarter of a million net votes in the Atlanta suburbs – just as he flipped Wisconsin via the suburbs around Milwaukee, Michigan via the suburbs around Detroit, and Pennsylvania via the suburbs around Philadelphia.
So now – for the fourth time – we are seeing the claim that Biden won a swing state via a surge of central city votes is false. Yet the Trump campaign continues to insist on lying to the American people about what really happened in the election.