No, It Wasn’t Election Fraud – Georgia Edition

This post is the fourth in an irregular series of posts on how Joe Biden flipped five states in last month’s election – and no, it wasn’t fraud. I have already addressed Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.

The final city in the Trump campaign’s fact-free election-theft narrative (which they are still pushing) is Atlanta. I’ve already debunked the nonsensical claim that Biden outperformed Hillary Clinton in Philadelphia, Detroit, and Milwaukee. In fact, Biden’s margin was smaller than Clinton’s in the first two cities, and in Milwaukee, Biden’s gain was nowhere near enough to flip Wisconsin. Atlanta also showed a small Biden gain, but once again, it was the suburbs – not the center city – that moved a key swing state from red to blue.

In 2016, Trump defeated Clinton by 211,141 votes in Georgia. How did Biden make up the votes?

Not in Atlanta (source: GA Secretary of State’s office):

• 2016: Clinton – 171,130, Trump 34,480; Margin = 136,650
• 2020: Biden – 207,670, Trump 41,492; Margin = 165,728
• Biden net gain = 29,078

That gain by Biden was less than one-seventh of what he needed to flip Georgia. For the story of how Biden actually won the state, we must once again look to the suburbs – here defined as the 10 counties surrounding Atlanta and part of the Atlanta Regional Commission (source: Dave Leip).

• Fulton and DeKalb County (Atlanta has territory in both)
  • 2016 Fulton: Clinton – 297,051, Trump – 117,783; Margin = 179,268
  • 2020 Fulton: Biden – 380,212, Trump – 137,247; Margin = 242,965
  • 2016 DeKalb: Clinton – 251,370, Trump – 51,468; Margin = 199,902
  • 2020 DeKalb: Biden – 308,162, Trump – 58,377; Margin = 249,785
  • Biden net gain outside Atlanta = 84,502
• Cobb County
  • 2016: Clinton – 160,121, Trump – 152,912; Margin = 7,209
  • 2020: Biden – 221,847, Trump – 165,436; Margin = 56,411
  • Biden net gain = 49,202
• Clayton County
  • 2016: Clinton – 78,220, Trump – 12,645; Margin = 65,575
  • 2020: Biden – 95,466, Trump – 15,811; Margin = 79,655
  • Biden net gain = 14,080
• Gwinnett County
  • 2016: Clinton – 166,153, Trump – 146,989; Margin = 19,165
  • 2020: Biden – 241,994, Trump – 166,400; Margin = 75,594
  • Biden net gain = 56,430
• Rockdale County
  • 2016: Clinton – 23,255, Trump – 13,478; Margin = 9,777
  • 2020: Biden – 31,237, Trump – 13,014; Margin = 18,223
  • Biden net gain = 8,446
• Fayette County
  • 2016: Clinton – 23,284, Trump – 35,048; Margin = -11,764
  • 2020: Biden – 33,062, Trump – 37,965; Margin = -4,894
  • Biden net gain = 6,870
• Cherokee County
  • 2016: Clinton – 25,231, Trump – 80,649; Margin = -55,418
  • 2020: Biden – 42,779, Trump – 99,585; Margin = -56,806
  • Biden net loss = 1,388
• Henry County
  • 2016: Clinton – 50,057, Trump – 45,724; Margin = 4,333
  • 2020: Biden – 73,443, Trump – 48,259; Margin = 25,184
  • Biden net gain = 20,852
• Douglas County
  • 2016: Clinton – 31,005, Trump – 24,817; Margin = 6,188
  • 2020: Biden – 42,814, Trump – 25,454; Margin = 17,360
    Biden net gain = 11,172
•  Biden total net suburban gain = 250,165

This is where Biden erased Clinton’s 200K+ vote deficit. He gained a quarter of a million net votes in the Atlanta suburbs – just as he flipped Wisconsin via the suburbs around Milwaukee, Michigan via the suburbs around Detroit, and Pennsylvania via the suburbs around Philadelphia.

So now – for the fourth time – we are seeing the claim that Biden won a swing state via a surge of central city votes is false. Yet the Trump campaign continues to insist on lying to the American people about what really happened in the election.