This post is the first in an irregular series of posts on how Joe Biden flipped five states in last month’s election – and no, it wasn’t fraud.
In his desperate attempt to maintain the illusion that he won the election, Donald Trump has seized upon a new fantasy: that Joe Biden’s victory came from anomalous surges in large cities. Even some Michigan Republicans recoiled at it (The Hill [1]).
Rep. Paul Mitchell [2] (R-Mich.) is calling on President Trump [3] to stop spreading unfounded conspiracy theories about the 2020 election “for the sake of our Nation.”
Mitchell on Sunday tweeted in response to Trump, who had posted on Twitter: “Everybody knows it was Rigged. They know Biden didn’t get more votes from the Black community than Obama, & certainly didn’t get 80,000,000 votes. Look what happened in Detroit, Philadelphia, plus!”
However, it’s Philadelphia and Pennsylvania that are the subject of this post. Contrary to Trump’s racist ranting, it was not a surge of fake votes in the City of Brotherly Love that delivered Pennsylvania to Biden. In fact, there was no surge for Biden in Philadelphia at all, fake or otherwise.
To see how Biden actually won Pennsylvania, we need to compare his performance to 2016, when Clinton lost by 44,000 (Dave Leip [4]).
We’ll start with Philadelphia:
- 2016: Clinton – 584,025, Trump – 108,748, Margin = 475,277
- 2020: Biden – 604,175, Trump – 132,870, Margin = 471,305
- Biden net loss = 3,972
That’s right, Biden did worse in Philadelphia than Clinton did.
So where did Biden find the votes to reverse Clinton’s Keystone deficit? It was in the suburbs.
Take a look at the numbers in the counties surrounding Philly:
- Delaware County
- 2016: Clinton – 177,402, Trump – 110,677, Margin = 66,725
- 2020: Biden – 206,709, Trump – 118,639, Margin = 88,070
- Biden net gain = 11,345
- Chester County
- 2016: Clinton – 141,682, Trump – 116,114, Margin = 25,568
- 2020: Biden – 182,372, Trump – 128,565, Margin = 53,807
- Biden net gain = 28,239
- Montgomery County
- 2016: Clinton – 256,082, Trump – 162,731, Margin = 93,351
- 2020: Biden – 319,511, Trump – 185,460, Margin = 134,051
- Biden net gain = 41,300
- Bucks County
- 2016: Clinton – 167,060, Trump – 164,361, Margin = 2,699
- 2020: Biden – 204,712, Trump – 187,367, Margin = 17,345
- Biden net gain = 14,646
- Total Biden net gain = 105,530
That figure more than covers the 44,000-vote deficit Clinton suffered and Biden’s 4,000 net loss in Philly.
So why is Trump avoiding the suburbs and fixated on the city itself?
It wouldn’t have anything to do with the heavy Black population in Philly, would it?
See also: