Holsworth: Nov. 11, 2020, Virginia Covid-19 Update
By Dr. Bob Holsworth
Editor’s note: Bearing Drift is grateful to Dr. Bob Holsworth for permission to share his daily Virginia coronavirus updates. For more, follow him on Facebook.
NOVEMBER 11, COVID-19 UPDATE
I’ve been giving a host of election post-mortems and haven’t posted on COVID-19 since November 1. In the meantime, we’ve added a presidential transition crisis to the nation’s ongoing challenges and are watching the pandemic rapidly become exponentially worse.
Fortunately, the news about the vaccine is even more positive than most of us had imagined. From my perspective, it gives added urgency to the steps we take in bridging to the time when the vaccines become widely available.
Let’s take a look at what is happening in Virginia.
1. Hospitalizations Up
On November 1, we had 1012 patients hospitalized with COVID-19, today there are 1265. This is the highest number of hospitalized patients since August 20.
This number likely undercounts the number of Virginians hospitalized because many residents of Southwest (where we are seeing spikes in places such as Washington County) actually utilize hospitals in Northeast Tennessee, facilities that Ballad Health has noted are facing significant stress.
Statewide, 81% of ICU beds are currently in use according to the Virginia Hospital and Healthcare Association (VHHA). Fortunately, Virginia has significant surge capacity and, when this is taken into account, ICU capacity is at 53%.
At the same time, excess capacity statewide may not always address the stress that smaller rural hospitals may undergo.
2. Cases Reach New Highs
Since November 1, these are the daily numbers of new confirmed cases – 1026, 1261, 1157, 1366, 1568, 2103, 1302, 1302, 854, and 1594, an average of 1353 cases per day. This is the highest 10-day period of new cases since the pandemic began.
Some of the increase may be attributed to increased testing. Yet we have also seen a rise in hospitalizations and an increase in test positivity. The PSR test positivity ratio is 6.2% and the total test positivity ratio (which covers more of the rapid tests that people are accessing) is 7.2%, up from 4.6% a few weeks ago.
I’m seeing increased cases in the three major metros, with the largest spike in RVA along with ongoing challenges in the far Southwest. Two long-term care facilities in the Halifax-South Boston area are dealing with very serious challenges.
3. Holidays and Everydays
Governor Northam is asking Virginians to ensure that they take appropriate precautions during the Thanksgiving holiday and I’ve heard infectious disease physicians and epidemiologists actually advise extended families to hold virtual celebrations.
I hope that I’m wrong, but the trends appear to suggest that by the time we get to Thanksgiving our everydays might be much worse than we’re seeing today.
With the remarkably positive news about vaccine development, it is extraordinarily important that we take the necessary steps to minimize the tragic effects the last months of the pandemic could bring.
