Part 6: The Last Stand
The last stand.
Well, almost. I do need to explain a bit of what I found with Texas, and what personally concerns me.
First off … Texas … by the numbers.
Texas has gained 1.5 MILLION voting-age residents since 2016, and it has the largest number of new youth voters. Sixteen percent of Texas voters are first-time voters.
Bachelor’s Degree or higher: 29.3%
Under age 65, no health insurance: 20.8%
Households where English is a second language: 35.5%
Foreign born 17.0%
African American 12.9%
Hispanic or Latino 39.7%
There are four candidates on the Presidential ballot in Texas: Trump, Biden, Jorgensen, and Hawkins.
Now that I listed the basic demographics, I can explain my issue with Texas.
There are still several counties, some of them large, that use voting systems that have no paper trail. They are 100 percent electronic. Not only can they be manipulated, but there is also no way for election officials to know, and no audit. Seeing as hackers already messed with Georgia, I don’t think my problem is unfounded.
Anyway, maybe I should explain my map and why it’s very different than any of my colleagues.
I didn’t use a poll for anything, save favorability ratings. My predictions are based on available voting data, and reading local news and comments of the states I covered.
Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com
It is entirely possible that I will be 100 percent wrong. Texas, Florida, and Georgia are the toughest calls for me … but here we go.
Arizona: Biden by 2
Texas: Biden by 1
Florida: Biden by 3 (driven in part by differences between the Cuban vote and the Puerto Rican vote)
Georgia: Biden by 2 (driven by demographic changes)
Pennsylvania: Biden by 5
North Carolina: Biden by 2 (driven by the new Tarheels from other states)
One final note. Even though SCOTUS has ruled that states can bind electors, the decision doesn’t say they are required to. Some of these battleground states don’t bind their electors. I am not the only one who has expressed concern.
So, there it is. I have a feeling I will either be really right or really wrong, but this project has given me such an education that I am grateful either way.
See also Bearing Drift Election 2020 Round-Up.