Predictions on Virginia’s Elections Results

The low, dishonest and exhausting 2020 elections are lurching toward completion. What might happen once all the ballots are counted? Here are a few fearless predictions about the close races.

First, the broad overview.

The Washington Post-Schar School poll showed Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden leading President Trump 52-41 percent. Those numbers aren’t likely to move much over the next few days, meaning the Democratic presidential winning streak in Virginia will continue.

No huge surprises there. Now let’s go down ballot.

U.S. Senate

Who will win: Incumbent Sen. Mark R. Warner

Who should win: Mark R. Warner

This isn’t a close race. I include it because the outcome has never been in doubt, demonstrating how bleak GOP prospects have become in statewide races. Warner has campaigned harder this time than he did in 2014, when Republican nominee Ed Gillespie nearly upset Warner in a Republican wave election year. Warner’s political career has long benefited from GOP bumbling and infighting, and this race is just the latest example. But this time, the biggest Republican bumble of all — Trump — is who puts Warner over the top.

2nd Congressional District

Who will win: Incumbent Elaine Luria

Who should win: Elaine Luria

The 2nd has been the only real swing district in Virginia in recent years. Luria, a Democrat, ousted scandal-plagued incumbent Scott Taylor in 2018 and is likely to take the Nov. 3 rematch, too. I wrote last week that Taylor was the wrong nominee at the wrong time for the GOP to have a realistic chance to win this district. Now, there’s news that the Congressional Leadership Fund is pulling its ads supporting Taylor and shifting resources elsewhere.

5th Congressional District

Who will win: Bob Good

Who should win: Cameron Webb

The only true toss-up in Virginia this year is the 5th Congressional District race between Republican Bob Good and Democrat Cameron Webb. This should have been a safe GOP district. But the gang that tried and failed — twice — to get the state GOP’s national committeewoman, Cynthia Dunbar, a congressional nomination succeeded this year in ousting incumbent Republican Rep. Denver Riggleman in a drive-up convention.

The winner of that convention, Good, is a disaster as candidate. But he has the edge because the 5th is GOP territory. Webb has run a far more effective, professional and inspirational campaign than Good. Webb should win and, were he running almost anywhere else in Virginia, he would win. Here’s hoping the district’s voters have the sense to reject the narrow-mindedness of Team Good and send Webb to the House.

Read the rest of Norm’s predictions at the Washington Post.

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