Bearing Drift Writers’ Predictions for 2020 Election

With only four days until America votes, our number crunchers and seasoned political junkies here at Bearing Drift have been following developments and have opinions and numbers to share.

Here are prediction posts to add to your reading….

-Norm Leahy: Predictions on Virginia’s Election Results

-DJ McGuire: So What Will Happen Next Week?

-Matt Homer: 2020 Election: A Look at National, Virginia, Texas

M.D. Russ, Senior Contributor:

I am going to go with Jared Kushner’s analysis that Trump is surrounded by “overconfident idiots” and predict that Biden will carry Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, barely squeak by in Florida and Arizona after a repeat of Bush v. Gore 2000, and lose Texas by an eyelash. (Even Beto O’Rouke couldn’t beat Ted Cruz in the Lost Star State.)

Biden wins the Electoral College by 313-224, but we won’t have the final tally before December.

Alicia Andrews is going to be buried in a landslide by incumbent Jennifer Wexton leaving VA-10 safely in the Democratic caucus.

Democrats will win the majority in the U.S. Senate with at least two seats to spare plus the Vice President vote. The gloves will come off following the Barrett confirmation and the Filibuster Rule is dead.

Stephen Spiker, Senior Contributor:

Biden wins GA, IA, and AZ, but not TX.

U.S. Senate: GOP flips AL, DEMs flip CO, AZ, ME, NC, GA, and IA. Warnock/Loeffler move on to GA runoff, with Warnock winning 45% of the vote.

U.S. House: Dems pick up net 10-15 seats.

Matt Walton, Senior Contributor:

President: Biden wins VA by 11.5%

U.S. Senate: Warner wins by 18.5%

02 – Luria wins by 2.5%

05 – Webb wins by 1.5%

07 – Spanberger wins by 3%

 

Matt Colt Hall, Senior Contributor:

President: 
Trump wins the White House, but loses Virginia by 5.

Trump will win Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, and MAYBE Minnesota. Definitely going to win Florida, North Carolina, Georgia, and Ohio.

U.S. Senate: 

Mark Warner will win by 7%. Gade has run a good race, but has no money.

Tuberville will blow Jones out of the water in Alabama 60 to 40%.

Mark Kelly will win in Arizona by 3%.

John James wins in Michigan in a recount by 2%.

Cocaine Mitch DESTROYS Amy McGrath by 30 points.

Lindsay Graham wins by 5%.

Cory Gardner wins by 2% in Colorado.

Sara Gideon wins Maine by 7%.

Thom Tillis wins by 6% in North Carolina.

Kelly Loeffler and David Perdue win Georgia. Kelly Loeffler by 4% and Perdue by 5%.

U.S. House: 

01: Wittman 53, Rashid 47%

02: Taylor 51, Luria 49%

05: Webb 52, Good 48%

06: Cline 70, Betts MAYBE gets 25 percent

07: Spanberger 52, Freitas 48%

10: Wexton 55, Andrews 45%

Outside of Virginia: I’m rooting for Madison Cawthorn in NC 11. He will win 54 to 46%.

Amendment One passes with 55%.

Also of interest … originally published in August 2020, this piece by Senior Contributor Andrew Hull, Were the Poll Really ‘All Wrong’ in 2016?, offers an interesting comparison to where the Trump and Biden campaigns were in the summer, and where they are now with less than a week from Election Day.

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