Part 4 – Pennsylvania: ‘Pennsylbama’ and Its Impact on 1600

Throughout my research on Pennsylvania, one common phrase was repeated enough that, if true, will need consideration in any analysis of the Commonwealth. That phrase is something like this: “Pennsylvania is Philadelphia and Pittsburgh with Alabama in the middle.”

They call it Pennsylbama. I’ll circle back to that in a few.

Pennsylvania does audits before certification, which is good, and all 67 counties now have voting machines that produce a VVPAT (paper ballot) so hand audits can be performed, if necessary.

I also found some interesting numbers.

Back in 2016, Trump won by less than one percent. Philadelphia and the surrounding counties accounted for about half of the vote statewide, so I wanted to look at that area in closer detail.

The early vote here, as with all the swing states is shattering records, and Republicans have been on quite a strong registration drive. So, let’s take a look. The 2016 numbers are added to compare.

PHILADELPHIA 2020

                                          (2016)                   New voters       % of total % of “change”

Democrats:   851,483  (584,025)                      103,784           76.0           13.9

Republican:  129,141   (108,748)                       21,420            11.5           19.9

Other:           139,156                                         25,244            12.5

Total           1,120,580                                       150,448

 

 New Applications:         92,475       “Change” of party Applications: 57,973

BUCKS COUNTY 2020

                                         (2016)           New Voters   % of total          % of “change”

Democrats:     207,727  (167,060)                24,529          43.0                  13.4

Republicans:   196,476   (164,361)               21,949          40.6                  12.6

Other                79,387                                     2,070          16.4

Total                483,590                                  48,548

New Applications:          37,424      “Change” of party Applications: 21,124

CHESTER COUNTY 2020                              

                                         (2016)        New Voters         % of total       % of “change”

Democrats: 156,664     (141,682)                 23,105               41.5                 17.3

Republicans:154,329   (116,114)                    4,804               40.08                10.6

Other:           66,876                                      10,603                17.7                          

Total             377,869                                     38,512

New applications: 28,441           “Change” of party Applications: 20,101

DELAWARE COUNTY 2020

 

                                          (2016)           New Voters         % of total      % of “change”

Democrats:     206,122     (177,402)                 27,215               49.0              15.2

Republicans:  159,445     (110,667)                  13,700               37.9                 9.4

Other:               55,435                                        9,038               13.2

Total                421,002                                      49,953

 

New Applications: 30,433       “Change” of party Applications: 19,520

MONTGOMERY COUNTY 2020

                                              (2016)        New Voters         % of total     % of “change”

Democrats:     300,052     (256,082)                 42,713               49.7            16.6

Republicans:  210,035     (162,731)                  22,967               34.8             2.3        Other:               94,150                                      16,732               15.6

Total                604,237                                      82,412

 

New Applications: 49,096       “Change” of party Applications: 33,316

 

In addition to the Southeastern area, I took a look at the following….

 

ERIE COUNTY 2020

                                           (2016)       New Voters         % of total        % of “change”

Democrats:     98,552         (58,112)        7,942                    49.0                         8.8

Republicans:   73,622        (60,069)        7,680                    36.6                         11.6   Other:              28,754                             3,729                   14.3                          

Total                200,928                            19,351

 

New Applications: 12,191       “Change” of party Applications: 7,160

All of these numbers come from the SOS Office, but I found them through a very interesting article. “Republicans continue to eat away at Democrats’ voter registration advantage in Pennsylvania.”

As of 10/26 the total early vote returns total and by %  look like this:

Democrats   1,193,887    62.6

Republicans    355,317   46.6

Minor                 10,756   43.8

No Party Aff    152,057    46.7

TOTAL           1,712,017 56.7

Back to that phrase I found everywhere: “Pennsylvania is Philadelphia and Pittsburgh with Alabama in the middle.” The folks who live there say this all the time in reference to the two Donkey Clan population centers in the east and west, and the Elephant Clan areas of the middle.

Pittsburgh is gaining Republicans, but Clinton won 80 percent of the city in 2016, and Biden is more popular than Clinton and even Trump according to the favorability ratings in Pennsylvania.

But the middle “Pennsylbama” part of the state is solidly red, and it remains to be seen how many Republicans, if any,  are willing to dump Trump.

The GOP has registered 184,392 people since June, compared to 93,357 new Democratic registrations. I will not assume all of those new voters will vote for the candidate of their party. There are many in the GOP who still hold the same values, but will not support Trump. Look no further than The Lincoln Project for this evidence.

Anyhow, Pennsylvania, by the numbers: 20 Electoral College Votes.

Ballots must be postmarked by 11/3, but ballots that are returned by mail by 11/6 will be counted, per court order. Ballots can’t be opened until 11/3.

There are no Senate races in 2020

Veterans: 782,762

% Female: 51

% Bachelor’s Degree or higher 30.8

% people under 65 with no health insurance  7.0

% English as a Second Language 11.3

% Foreign Born  6.8

% African American 12.0

% Hispanic or Latino  7.8

This will be another tough call on my map … stay tuned.

See also:

-Part 1: Election Security and Andi’s Novice Predictions

-Part 2: Diving Into the Political Waters in Florida

-Part 3: The ‘Swing’ing Peaches of Georgia

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