Part 4 – Pennsylvania: ‘Pennsylbama’ and Its Impact on 1600
Throughout my research on Pennsylvania, one common phrase was repeated enough that, if true, will need consideration in any analysis of the Commonwealth. That phrase is something like this: “Pennsylvania is Philadelphia and Pittsburgh with Alabama in the middle.”
They call it Pennsylbama. I’ll circle back to that in a few.
Pennsylvania does audits before certification, which is good, and all 67 counties now have voting machines that produce a VVPAT (paper ballot) so hand audits can be performed, if necessary.
I also found some interesting numbers.
Back in 2016, Trump won by less than one percent. Philadelphia and the surrounding counties accounted for about half of the vote statewide, so I wanted to look at that area in closer detail.
The early vote here, as with all the swing states is shattering records, and Republicans have been on quite a strong registration drive. So, let’s take a look. The 2016 numbers are added to compare.
PHILADELPHIA 2020
Democrats: 851,483 (584,025) 103,784 76.0 13.9
Republican: 129,141 (108,748) 21,420 11.5 19.9
Other: 139,156 25,244 12.5
Total 1,120,580 150,448
New Applications: 92,475 “Change” of party Applications: 57,973
BUCKS COUNTY 2020
Democrats: 207,727 (167,060) 24,529 43.0 13.4
Republicans: 196,476 (164,361) 21,949 40.6 12.6
Other 79,387 2,070 16.4
Total 483,590 48,548
New Applications: 37,424 “Change” of party Applications: 21,124
CHESTER COUNTY 2020
Democrats: 156,664 (141,682) 23,105 41.5 17.3
Republicans:154,329 (116,114) 4,804 40.08 10.6
Other: 66,876 10,603 17.7
Total 377,869 38,512
New applications: 28,441 “Change” of party Applications: 20,101
DELAWARE COUNTY 2020
Democrats: 206,122 (177,402) 27,215 49.0 15.2
Republicans: 159,445 (110,667) 13,700 37.9 9.4
Other: 55,435 9,038 13.2
Total 421,002 49,953
New Applications: 30,433 “Change” of party Applications: 19,520
MONTGOMERY COUNTY 2020
Democrats: 300,052 (256,082) 42,713 49.7 16.6
Republicans: 210,035 (162,731) 22,967 34.8 2.3 Other: 94,150 16,732 15.6
Total 604,237 82,412
New Applications: 49,096 “Change” of party Applications: 33,316
In addition to the Southeastern area, I took a look at the following….
ERIE COUNTY 2020
Democrats: 98,552 (58,112) 7,942 49.0 8.8
Republicans: 73,622 (60,069) 7,680 36.6 11.6 Other: 28,754 3,729 14.3
Total 200,928 19,351
New Applications: 12,191 “Change” of party Applications: 7,160
All of these numbers come from the SOS Office, but I found them through a very interesting article. “Republicans continue to eat away at Democrats’ voter registration advantage in Pennsylvania.”
As of 10/26 the total early vote returns total and by % look like this:
Democrats 1,193,887 62.6
Republicans 355,317 46.6
Minor 10,756 43.8
No Party Aff 152,057 46.7
TOTAL 1,712,017 56.7
Back to that phrase I found everywhere: “Pennsylvania is Philadelphia and Pittsburgh with Alabama in the middle.” The folks who live there say this all the time in reference to the two Donkey Clan population centers in the east and west, and the Elephant Clan areas of the middle.
Pittsburgh is gaining Republicans, but Clinton won 80 percent of the city in 2016, and Biden is more popular than Clinton and even Trump according to the favorability ratings in Pennsylvania.
But the middle “Pennsylbama” part of the state is solidly red, and it remains to be seen how many Republicans, if any, are willing to dump Trump.
The GOP has registered 184,392 people since June, compared to 93,357 new Democratic registrations. I will not assume all of those new voters will vote for the candidate of their party. There are many in the GOP who still hold the same values, but will not support Trump. Look no further than The Lincoln Project for this evidence.
Anyhow, Pennsylvania, by the numbers: 20 Electoral College Votes.
Ballots must be postmarked by 11/3, but ballots that are returned by mail by 11/6 will be counted, per court order. Ballots can’t be opened until 11/3.
There are no Senate races in 2020
Veterans: 782,762
% Female: 51
% Bachelor’s Degree or higher 30.8
% people under 65 with no health insurance 7.0
% English as a Second Language 11.3
% Foreign Born 6.8
% African American 12.0
% Hispanic or Latino 7.8
This will be another tough call on my map … stay tuned.
See also:
-Part 1: Election Security and Andi’s Novice Predictions
-Part 2: Diving Into the Political Waters in Florida
-Part 3: The ‘Swing’ing Peaches of Georgia