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Holsworth: Oct. 17, 2020, Virginia Covid-19 Update

By Dr. Bob Holsworth

Editor’s note: Bearing Drift is grateful to Dr. Bob Holsworth for permission to share his daily Virginia coronavirus updates. For more, follow him on Facebook [1].

1. Hospitalizations Steady

In my last post 3 days ago there were 1007 COVID-19 patients in hospitals Today there are 993. This is an increase from the 850-950 range of two weeks ago, though significantly below the pandemic highs.

2. Case Average Increases Again

I noted 3 days ago that the 6 day case average had increased from 772 to 1012. In the last 3 days, the case average is 1209, slightly more than 50% higher than we were two weeks ago.

Fortunately, the test positivity percentage has only inched up to 4.9%, quite a bit lower than the 12%-25% we’ve seen in other states that are surging.

At the same time, I have to think that a case increase of this magnitude is a worrisome sign. The southern part of RVA has seen significant increases over the past week, with the Chesterfield Health District reporting more than 100 cases yesterday.

3. A Fall Surge?

This seems to be the question right now. Is the case increase an indication of even larger problems that may be on the way for Virginia? Or should we take consolation in the fact that we haven’t seen a large increase in test positivity?

Given the evident surge in the northern Midwest states, I think that it’s best to be cautious and worried. There have been only a couple of weeks during the entire pandemic that we’ve had the number of cases that have been reported in the last 5 days. It’s a good time to double down on our personal precautions.