Holsworth: July 20, 2020, Virginia Covid-19 Update

The Virginia Hospital and Healthcare Association’s (VHHA) daily reports since Friday show that COVID-19 hospitalizations have remained basically steady. On Friday, there were 1171 COVID-19 patients in hospitals, today 1158.

In the last week, there has been a 29 person increase in hospitalizations, far lower than the 346 person increase the previous week.

2. Cases Continue to Rise-Increase Higher in Hampton Roads than NOVA and RVA- Test Positivity Inches Up

The Virginia Department of Health (VDH) reported 940, 1057, and 945 cases the last 3 days. This is compared to 851-888-and 972 for the same 3 days last week.

In each of the last 3 days, the number of new confirmed cases in Hampton Roads exceeded the number in NOVA and RVA combined.

The 7-day test positivity percentage inched up from 7.6% to 7.7%, higher than the pandemic low of 5.8%.

3. School Boards Choosing

I’ve noticed over the past two weeks that we are beginning to see a wider spread of cases across communities outside of the 3 major metros.

Danville/Pittsylvania, Washington County, Lynchburg/Bedford, and Albemarle/Charlottesville have all had increased cases. The numbers themselves are relatively modest compared to what we’ve seen in the major metros. But I’m certain that even modest increases are complicating the decisions of local school boards as they consider how to reopen next month.

The Henrico County Superintendent, Dr. Amy Cashwell, just recommended a fully virtual reopening for the first 9 weeks of school. And mid-afternoon today, Chesterfield’s Superintendent Dr. Merv Daugherty said that he too would recommend to the School Board this evening a virtual start to the year.

As Chesterfield County Public Schools makes its decision about reopening, here’s how one School Board member, Ryan Harter, described the conflicting pressures that he’s experiencing in the Chesterfield Observer. “We’re trying to take the politics out of it and make sure we get it right… We’re all under a lot of pressure. We have many constituent who are very fearful of the virus and others who aren’t. How do you balance that? It’s a tough question.”

Fully virtual, fully onsite (with a virtual opt-out), or a Hybrid approach – every school board in the Commonwealth is choosing among some version of these options.

Virginia could wind up with a patchwork approach to schooling across localities and regions, and, if we include private schools, within localities. In RVA, it appears that Richmond, Chesterfield, and Henrico may start virtual, Hanover will open five days a week with a virtual option, and several private schools will open on site.

There should be a strong measure of local control in schools, but I’d also like to see more visible guidance at the federal and state levels designed to answer the legitimate questions that many school board members must have.