Holsworth: May 29, 2020, Virginia Covid-19 Update

Editor’s note: Bearing Drift is grateful to Dr. Bob Holsworth for permission to share his daily Virginia coronavirus updates. For more, follow him on Facebook.

 

May, 29 COVID-19 Virginia Update

1. Hospitalizations Tick Upward

The Virginia Hospital and Healthcare Association’s (VHHA) daily report showed that the number of COVID-19 patients in hospitals ticked upward from 1502 to 1524. There were 176 discharges yesterday and 198 estimated new hospital admissions.

On a more positive note, the number of COVID-19 patients in ICUs declined from 416 to 373.

2. Cases Rise; Test Positivity Percentage Declines ; RVA has largest increase in major metros

-The Virginia Department of Health (VDH) reported 1132 new confirmed cases yesterday. At the same time, there were over 11,000 tests reported. The single day test positivity percentage was 10.2% and the 7 day average declined to 13.4% . I noted yesterday that we could begin to take this indicator seriously when we had both a substantial number of tests and a positive percentage that was moving below 10%. It is good to see that both conditions are close to being fulfilled.

– The composition of the 1100+ cases was different that what we have seen in previous weeks, in one way encouraging and in another concerning.

The encouraging part was that, among the 3 major metros, the lowest percentage increase was in NOVA. For almost the entire month of May, the percentage rise in NOVA, the most populous part of the state, was higher than Hampton Roads and RVA.
Yesterday, NOVA had a 2% rise, Hampton Roads, 2.3% and RVA 5%.

It is encouraging to see growth rates declining in NOVA, though we will have to pay close attention in the next few days to see if the numbers this week in RVA is an actual trend.

3. RVA on the Pandemic Map

I have linked below to the map that CNN puts out every day showing the intensity of the disease across the nation. (You’ll need to click on the link and not just the picture that shows up here to see what I mean).

When you look at the map, one notices that NOVA is essentially the southern tip of the East Coast epicenter of the pandemic in the U.S.
New York City is Ground Zero, it stretches northward to Boston, and southbound to MD-D.C.-NOVA.

As the tip, the intensity in NOVA did not reach anywhere near the levels of New York, but it has been far more impacted than the other metros in the Commonwealth- RVA and Hampton Roads.

RVA occupies a unique place on the pandemic map. It is the nearest large metro where the intensity of infection has not spread. It’s almost as if there is a firewall south of Stafford and Spotsylvania in Caroline County. This is the reason that I’ve been watching the percentage rise in RVA this week – we have a huge interest in having the firewall hold.

Background:

-CNN: Tracking Covid-19 Cases in the U.S.

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