Holsworth: May 25, 2020, Virginia Covid-19 Update

Editor’s note: Bearing Drift is grateful to Dr. Bob Holsworth for permission to share his daily Virginia coronavirus updates. For more, follow him on Facebook.

 

COVID-19 Update, May 25

1. Highs and Lows

– I had mentioned yesterday that we ought to be wary of drawing any conclusions from the case reports on a holiday weekend.

We saw that the Virginia Department of Health’s (VDH) case report yesterday had the lowest number of daily confirmed cases (495) for the entire month. Well, that changed today as VDH reported 1483 confirmed cases, the largest single day number since the pandemic began.

The three day moving average of 929 cases smooths out the gyrations that typically accompany weekend and/or holiday reporting.

In addition, 37 COVID-19 deaths were reported, moving the total to 1202 and the week’s average to about 25 deaths per day.

While case numbers are extremely dependent on testing practices and have to be interpreted with caution, I think there are two major concerns that emerge from the case reports.

First, we continue to see a disproportionate percentage of case numbers in NOVA, the Commonwealth’s largest metropolitan area.

Second, while a large metro such as Hampton Roads has declining case growth, this is not true throughout Virginia. Issues that we saw in the long-term care facilities (LTCFs) located in the major metros now pop up elsewhere. Reports from Carroll County in the southwest this week noted 5 deaths in a LTCF there.

– The Virginia Healthcare and Hospital Association’s (VHHA) daily report showed an uptick in patients in hospitals from 1351 to 1376. This number is down from the high of 1625 on May 8. We will be looking very closely at the reports toward the end of the week to see whether this downturn has become a durable trend.

2. Decision Tuesday

And it’s not about an election. Governor Northam is likely to announce his decision about wearing masks in public spaces, especially indoors and where people are gathering in large numbers.

He certainly more than hinted last week that there would be a mandate of some kind about face coverings. Here in the City of Richmond, Mayor Levar Stoney has requested that face coverings be mandatory.

Public health experts, including those associated with the White House Task Force, have emphasized the positive impact that wearing masks will have on reducing the spread of the virus.

But Governor Northam’s appearance at the beach this weekend without a mask and without practicing social distancing stepped all over his own message.

We should see very soon how much his concern about the prospect of the inevitable charge of personal hypocrisy shapes his public policy decision-making.

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