Holsworth: May 13, 2020, Virginia Covid-19 Update
Editor’s note: Bearing Drift is grateful to Dr. Bob Holsworth for permission to share his daily Virginia coronavirus updates. For more, follow him on Facebook.
13, COVID-19 UPDATE, Virginia
1. Hospitalizations Back Up-Long Plateau Continues
The Virginia Hospital and Healthcare Association‘s (VHHA) daily report showed that the three-day decline in hospitalizations that we saw over the weekend has now been followed by two days of relatively heavy new admissions.
Total COVID-19 hospitalizations declined yesterday from 1529 to 1526. But more to the point, net estimated admissions over discharges increased in the last 2 days by 151 and 152, where the numbers for the previous three days were 95-38-21.
One good way of trying to understand the trend in hospitalizations is to look at the average number of admissions over discharges per day for the last three weeks.
April 23-April 29: 105
April 30- May 6: 103
May 7-May 13: 107
The 3-week average shows that there has been essentially no change in average hospital admissions.
We can take consolation in the lack of a surge, but the absence of clear downward movement is discouraging.
2. Cases Rise by 946, Deaths By 36 to 927
The Virginia Department of Health‘s (VDH) daily report showed that cases increased by 946 to 26,746.
The 3-day moving average is 903 cases and this is relatively consistent with the two previous 3-day moving averages of 868 and 909.
There were 8845 tests yesterday with an 11% positivity percentage.
Deaths rose by 36 to 927. We have now seen two consecutive days of 35+ deaths after three days of declining numbers. The University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics (IHME) latest model yesterday dramatically raised the number of projected deaths in Virginia from more than 1100 to 1944.
To be clear, the numerical projections in this model have wildly careened over the last two months so I don’t embrace any particular number. But what the model does show is that it is taking the Commonwealth longer than may have been initially expected to move the key measures onto a downward slope.
Among the three major metros yesterday, Hampton Roads again had the lowest percentage increase in cases (1.9%) compared to NOVA’s 3.7% and RVA’s 3.5%.
3. Mayor Stoney’s Reservations
Richmond’s Mayor Levar Stoney expressed reservations yesterday about whether Friday is the right time for the city to participate in Governor Northam’s Phase One reopening.
While Henrico and Chesterfield expressed eagerness to proceed, Mayor Stoney noted in an RTD story that “we’re different from the counties. That’s just the bottom line.”
The case data appear to show that Richmond has actually performed comparatively well. It’s per capita cases and per capita deaths are either equal to or lower than Chesterfield and Henrico. Indeed, Mayor Stoney can take some credit for the fact that we haven’t seen the kind of surge in Richmond that has occurred in other core cities around the country.
At the same time, there has to be a reason to explain the Mayor’s reservations to enter Phase One on Friday. He has been consistent in his expressed belief that testing in the city has not been at the needed level and that there is far more disease prevalent than may be showing up in the official numbers.
I don’t know whether the Mayor will ask for the exemption and, if he does, whether the Governor would grant it. But he is the kind of mayor who has knows what’s happening on the streets. He’s obviously worried that the data doesn’t entirely capture the situation on the ground.
