Holsworth: May 12, 2020, Virginia Covid-19 Update
Editor’s note: Bearing Drift is grateful to Dr. Bob Holsworth for permission to share his daily Virginia coronavirus updates. For more, follow him on Facebook.
COVID-19 UPDATE, VIRGINIA
1. Hospitalizations End 3-Day Decline and Go Back Up
The Virginia Hospital and Healthcare Association (VHHA) daily report showed that the three day decline in hospitalizations ended yesterday. Total hospitalizations increased from 1504-1529.
More to the point, net estimated admissions over discharges increased by 152, where the numbers for the previous three days were 95-38-21.
Over the next few days, we’ll be able to see if this is an outlier amidst a declining trend or, less happily, a return to the up and down pattern in which hospital admissions remain on a long plateau.
2. Cases Rise by 730, Number of Reported Tests Down, Deaths Move Back Up
The Virginia Department of Health‘s (VDH) daily report showed that cases increased by 730 to 25,800.
At the same time, the number of tests reported yesterday, 3,481, was the lowest in 12 days and had a test positivity percentage of 21%, ending a 5-day string in the low teens.
It has been very difficult to utilize case increase and test positivity as a reliable measure of what is occurring because so much depends on what groups were tested in any particular day and whether the reports were utilizing the same test. VDH announced yesterday, for example, that it would no longer count the number of antibody tests in its daily report.
This was probably smart, but it puts us in the situation of not comparing apples to apples and limits the utility of using test positivity as an indicator of disease direction right now.
The number of COVID-19 deaths rose by 41 yesterday to 891, ending 3 days of decline.
3. NOVA and the BEACH
Governor Northam noted yesterday that the Phase One reopening would be delayed in NOVA because of the continued heavy caseload and persistent outbreaks in several zip codes. Leaders in five of the largest jurisdictions had asked for the delay that was granted yesterday.
At the same time, business leaders in Hampton Roads and especially those in Virginia Beach have requested that the Governor move much faster in enabling them to reopen. Why should beaches be open in adjacent states but not ours? What fate will befall hundreds of small businesses if tourism doesn’t return?
One can understand their anxiousness. Yesterday, in the Peninsula and Beach communities that I include in the Hampton Roads stats, there was a total of 26 new cases, a 1.3%. increase. In fact, there are more total cases in Accomack County (530) with 32,000 residents than in Virginia Beach (509) with a population of 450,000.
There was, however, a question from a reporter at yesterday’s briefing that hinted at the complications that could arise. She asked that since NOVA was such a hotspot, was the Governor considering putting travel restrictions on individuals who lived in NOVA jurisdictions. The Governor suggested that people should not travel (he didn’t make an exception for a long weekend at the Beach), but noted that he would not institute a ban.
Hampton Roads has case numbers that probably would be the envy right now of almost every similarly sized region on the east coast. Yet its largest jurisdiction, Virginia Beach, relies heavily, albeit not entirely, on tourism for its economic vitality. This means attracting people from outside the region, from places with case numbers like NOVA , New Jersey, and New York to spend time and money.
There are two big questions that any region that heavily relies on tourism will have to answer this summer.
Will people come? (Who wouldn’t want a vacation from what we’ve been through?)
And, if they do, how is a virus contained when more people from more places are moving around more quickly?
