Holsworth: May 11, 2020, Virginia Covid-19 Update

Editor’s note: Bearing Drift is grateful to Dr. Bob Holsworth for permission to share his daily Virginia coronavirus updates. For more, follow him on Facebook.

 

MAY 11, COVID-19 UPDATE: VIRGINIA

1. Hospitalizations Down for Three Consecutive Days

We’ll know for sure tomorrow (after a weekday report-out) whether this is a trend, but this is the best 3-day period since the Virginia Hospital and Healthcare Association (VHHA) started reporting hospitalization figures on April 8.

In the last two days, the  Virginia Healthcare and Hospital Association (VHHA) reports that total COVID-19 hospital admissions have gone from a pandemic high of 1625 to 1504.

For the last 5 days, net estimated admissions (estimated admissions minus discharges) look like this.

May 6- 215

May 7- 110

May 8- 184

May 9- 95

May 10- 38

May 11- 21

The consistent good news on hospitalizations for the last week is that the number of patients in ICUs or on ventilators is near the lowest end of the range since VHHA began its reporting. Here are today’s numbers and the range.

Patients in ICUS: 362 (348-469)

Patients on Vents: 194 (187-303)

2. Cases Rise, But Test Positivity and Growth in Deaths Decline for 3rd Consecutive Day

The Virginia Department of Health (VDH) reports cases rose by 989 from 24,081 to 25,070, a 4.1% day over day increase. The three-day moving average for cases is 909 and this represents an increase from yesterday’s three day moving average of 837.

But case rise may not be the ultimate best indicator of how the disease is progressing.

-We’ve seen that the case rise is often related to the number of tests. The 9801 test reported yesterday was one of the three highest test numbers since the pandemic began.

-The percentage of positive tests yesterday was 10%, the third consecutive day we’ve seen a decline in this percentage. (Skeptics say that this occurs because we’re now counting antibody tests as well.)

– The increase in positive tests has not been accompanied in the past 3 days by an increase in hospitalizations. There is apparently a lower percentage of who test positive being hospitalized. (I’ll have more to say about this below.)

– In addition, yesterday’s death increase of 11 individuals was the third consecutive day that we had 50% less than the 30+ average deaths that we’ve seen in the previous week.

3. RVA and Hampton Roads Look Much Better

The situation in RVA and Hampton Roads continues to look far more positive than in NOVA.

Yesterday’s increase in what I label RVA communities was 1.4% (43 cases) and was 2.4% (47 cases) in what I label Hampton Roads communities.

These numbers illustrate how uneven the progress of COVID-19 is across the Commonwealth.

4. NOVA Does Not

The case rise in what I label NOVA communities was 5% yesterday, considerably above the statewide average.

Increasing attention in NOVA is being paid to the situation in Latino communities that in several locales have more than 50% of the cases.

Since the Latino community is, in general, younger we are not seeing the deaths rates that have accompanied cases in long-term care facilities. But we continue to see extensive community spread in NOVA, especially in zip codes with significant minority populations. In Manassas City, for example, more than 1% of the total population has already tested positive.

Until the situation in NOVA is better controlled, it is not surprising that local leaders are requesting that they be able to move slower in initiating the Governor’s Phase One reopening.

5. Hotspots: From the Eastern Shore to the Far Southwest

On the Eastern Shore, we see that more than 1.5% of the population in Accomack and Northampton Counties have contracted COVID-19 which the Governor has suggested is related to the situation with workers at the poultry processing plants.

Harrisonburg in the northern Valley also has seen more than 1% of its population test positive, a combination of issues at a long-term care facility, poultry processing plants and correctional institutions.

And I’m watching Galax in the far Southwest, where case numbers are relatively small (55), but the spike represents more than 1% of the population.

6. Final Thought

There does appear to be several positive trends occurring, statewide with hospitalizations/deaths, and regionally in the RVA and Hampton Roads metro areas. We should know after we receive weekday reports how real these apparent trends are.

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