Holsworth: May 9, 2020, Virginia Covid-19 Update

Editor’s note: Bearing Drift is grateful to Dr. Bob Holsworth for permission to share his daily Virginia coronavirus updates. For more, follow him on Facebook.

 

May 2-9, COVID-19 WEEKLY UPDATE: VIRGINIA

HALF FULL OR HALF EMPTY? WHAT ABOUT VIRGINIA BEACH?

Given the choice, I think with COVID-19 we’d prefer the glass half empty – we want to see fewer people dying, fewer people in hospitals, and we’d like to know that the odds of us contracting the virus are going down.

Governor Northam announced yesterday that Virginia’s official policy will likely be shifting next week from “Stay-at-Home” to “Safer-at-Home.”

It may be the quintessential half-empty policy. Non-essential retail stores can open at 50% capacity. Outdoor seating at restaurants, bars, breweries, and wineries can open at 50% capacity. And places of worship can open to services at, you guessed it, 50% capacity.

But the policy still comes with plenty of prohibitions. No indoor dining. Entertainment and amusement establishments remain shuttered. Beaches aren’t open. Gyms are closed, though group classes can be held outside (I doubt that my Anytime Fitness facility will be putting members through their paces in the Target parking lot.)

Governor Northam also left open the potential that local governments in hotspots such as NOVA, the northern Valley, and the Eastern Shore will be able to maintain stricter restrictions with state permission.

Criticism of the Governor’s position was immediately voiced in Virginia Beach, the second largest jurisdiction in the Commonwealth where the disease curve has eased.

-Restaurateurs wanted to know why a church could hold services inside but they couldn’t serve dinner.

– Virginia Beach’s most prominent hotelier, Bruce Thompson, expressed “disappointment and surprise” that the region would have to operate with stricter restrictions than competitive states.

-Small business owners who will begin their make or break season in a few weeks are worried that the Governor’s reluctance to endorse a more robust reopen will do permanent damage to their livelihood.

The situation in Virginia Beach represents the special kind of challenge that the disease has brought to the Commonwealth.

On one hand, it appears that the disease has not been as prevalent there as in other regions. It has the same population as Loudoun and half the cases. It has more people and fewer cases than Henrico or Chesterfield. The COVID-19 growth rate in Hampton Roads has been the lowest of the three major metros for weeks.

Why keep it locked up?

At the same time, it’s the Commonwealth’s tourist magnet. Open up the beaches and the restaurants, and far more people are circulating then right now.

And they’re not just from Hampton Roads, but from hotspots in Virginia and from the entire East Coast epicenter, from people who can’t wait to get out of New York for a long weekend.

If the modelers and public health experts are right, the disease is spread when more people move around to more places.

That’s not a bad definition of tourism.

I love Bruce Thompson’s hotels and have several favorite restaurants at the Beach. At my age, however, I’m still safer at home.

But I’m certain that there are thousands of others who’d participate in a half-empty, socially distanced reopening.

What’s the responsible decision for the Governor to make?