Holsworth: May 3, 2020, Virginia Covid-19 Update
Editor’s note: Bearing Drift is grateful to Dr. Bob Holsworth for permission to share his daily Virginia coronavirus updates. For more, follow him on Facebook.
MAY 3, COVID-19 UPDATE: VIRGINIA
HOSPITALIZATIONS ON THE LONG PLATEAU: DEATHS INCREASE BY 25% IN A WEEK; DEMOGRAPHIC DATA BY ETHNICITY AND RACE
1. HOSPITALIZATIONS ON THE LONG PLATEAU
The Virginia Hospital and Healthcare Association’s (VHHA) daily report showed that total hospitalizations decreased from 1426 statewide to 1413. There were 185 discharges yesterday so the estimated number of new admissions was 172.
Hospital admissions data have exhibited an up and down, yo-yo like pattern for about three weeks now. This week was no exception. We averaged about 95 new admissions a day. At the end of the week, the total number of patients in hospitals, 1413, was only 23 patients fewer than when we started the week at 1436.
This has been an extended plateau with everyone hoping for a decisive move downward.
Thankfully, patients in ICUs or on ventilators remain at the low end of the range since VHHA began reporting on April 7. Here are today’s numbers and the range.
Patients in ICUs: 385 (357-469)
Patients on Vents: 193 (193-303)
2. CASES CONTINUE RISE; DEATHS INCREASE 25% IN A WEEK
The Virginia Department of Health (VDH) reported 940 new cases yesterday, moving the statewide total to 18,671, a 5.3% day over day increase.
In the past week, there were 5,701 cases, a 44% weekly increase. In other words, there were almost half as many cases reported last week than in the entire course of the epidemic.
I think that many observers believe that these numbers are the consequence of increased testing and do not represent an increased acceleration of the disease.
I recognize that increased testing is a major cause of case rise. But I do want to point out distinctive features that should also be acknowledged. NOVA continues to have larger percentage increases than Virginia’s two other major metros – Hampton Roads and RVA. Spikes arising in the northern Valley and Accomack County are related to apparent outbreaks at meat processing facilities. And outbreaks continue to arise at nursing/assisted living and nursing facilities.
The number of COVID-19 deaths increased yesterday from 616 to 660 and, over the last seven days from 448 to 660, a 25% weekly rise. The University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics had projected on April 29 that Virginia would have 638 deaths by August 4. Unfortunately, this number was exceeded 2 months early.
3. VDH DISEASE DEMOGRAPHICS By ETHICITY AND RACE
Activists and leaders in Virginia’s Latino communities had requested that VDH report information about how COVID-19 was impacting their community. This information now exists side-by-side with the data that VDH has been gathering about the impact of COVID-19 by race.
Two noteworthy trends are evident in the data.
First, individuals who identify as Latino or Hispanic have contracted COVID-19 at a rate far in excess of their percentage in the overall population. Latinos/Hispanics comprise 9.9 per cent of Virginia’s population but represent 37% of the individuals who have contracted COVID-19 statewide on the reports for which we have ethnicity data. I had presumed that there would be a disparate percentage, but was taken aback by how high this was.
At the moment, Latinos/Hispanics represent a much lower percentage of the deaths that have occurred, 8% statewide. My guess is that that Latinos/Hispanics do not have high numbers of individuals in the senior living facilities that have been ravaged, that many of the people who have contracted the disease are relatively younger, and that the disease’s appearance in the workplaces where they are highly represented is recent and that the impact has yet to be fully felt.
Second, African-Americans comprise 19.9% of the Virginia population but represent 26% of the individuals who have contracted COVID-19 and 27% of the deaths on reports that have data by race.
Since VDH has taken some hits recently for their data reporting, it’s clear that they have responded to the requests for more detailed information on race and ethnicity.
