270 to Win
It’s Groundhog Day yet again in the age of COVID-19. Rise and shine and put your booties on.
Social distancing has not only allowed us to stay safe, but also have some extra time on our hands. Time we never had before in the endless grind of the workweek. Some of you have taken this time to Facetime with family, attempt to learn yoga then quit after day 10, debate if Carol Baskin killed her husband, and most of all, play all the games. But forget Call of Duty or Fortnite. If you are a true politico, there is only one game to play- 270 to Win.
“270 to Win” is an interactive map that allows you to compute different outcomes for the upcoming presidential election. It allows you to fill in your Red states and Blue ones, and even allows you to introduce the possibility of an Amash win in Michigan.
Presidential year 2020 is going to be an election like no other. Two septuagenarians slugging it out in the swing states – and verbally slipping up in the suburbs. Possibly no door knocking. Most likely, no conventions. Almost certainly no rallies.
Mail-in ballots only? Mandatory masks at the polls? The coronavirus has altered our way of life and possibly the outcome of the election, making it almost impossible to predict at this time. But damn it, “270 to Win” allows me to try.
For Trump to win and then some, he would have to retain his 2016 Electoral Map. Holding onto Pennsylvania and Ohio and Florida are vital. New Hampshire is a state that is in the Rust Belt – old, white, and angry – this northeastern state is the perfect place to grow and give a mic to working class angst there, as he did in western PA.
He can afford (although I wouldn’t recommend it) to lose WI and MI (where he is slipping) but only if he wins Maine (again – white, industrial, working class state) – which allows him to squeak by at 272, defeating Biden who would be at 266, with Biden winning AZ, WI, MI, and edging him out in NH. If he loses NH or ME in my hypothetical, Biden wins 270-268. For Trump to have more breathing room, he would have to hold on to MI or WI.
For a flat out Biden victory, he must win his native state of Pennsylvania. If Biden wins the key states, Ohio, and Michigan, but still loses Florida, he slides by Trump 298-240. He obviously takes Virginia; that ain’t changing on a national level anytime soon. If he takes the Rust Belt and captures a bit more than the Research Triangle in NC, he crushes Trump 323-215.
Biden cannot win without picking up PA or Ohio. Florida is not the biggest determining factor as it once was. But the Key State is literally the Key State in 2020.
Now for a last wild outcome – let’s say Justin Amash wins his home state of Michigan, putting its 16 points in the Libertarians column. For Democrats freaking out that Amash jeopardizes a Biden presidency, it does not. It gives the election to Biden, 283-239.
Basically, to sum this up, 2020 will be a toss-up, and crazier than injecting a bleach/Lysol cocktail into your eyeballs with UV rays to taste.