For this round-up, we’re looking only at districts where President Trump earned between 40% or 60% of the vote – these districts could conceivably be considered competitive in November. All information from www.fec.gov/data [1].
As a note: VPAP’s figures (and others being bandied) may include PAC funding. For example, House Victory Project dropped $234K on Abigail Spanberger; that, with other PACs, bring her total up past $1M for Q1. Not every PAC donates directly to candidates – but top-level races can be sure to count on having tens of millions of dollars spent on their behalf if they need it, making trying to parse out the level of financial support a candidate can rely on muddied at best.
The figures below represent just the money raised by the authorized campaign committees, as an indicator of the work and support that each campaign was able to generate on their own. While not always the case, candidates that show an ability to generate massive and widespread financial support tend to do better in elections than candidates that are only able to generate narrow or meager financial support.
VA-01:
(Trump 55%)
Rob Wittman (i):
01/01 – 03/31 Raised: $138K
Cycle-to-date: $731K
Cash on Hand: $596K
Qasim Rashid:
01/01 – 03/31 Raised: $209K
Cycle-to-date: $209K
Cash on Hand: $126K
Vangie Williams:
01/01 – 03/31 Raised: $19K
Cycle-to-date: $80K
Cash on Hand: $140K (with $134K in debt)
Analysis:
Vangie Williams is back for a rematch, but the money she’s bringing in doesn’t express a lot of confidence from Democrats to flip this seat. She has competition for the nomination as well, with Qasim Rashid raising a cool $200K in the first quarter. Meanwhile, incumbent Rob Wittman is sitting on over a half-million in the bank. So far, this race doesn’t have the ingredients for a surprise addition to the 2020 map.
VA-02:
(Trump 49%)
Elaine Luria (i):
01/01 – 03/31 Raised: $627K
Cycle-to-date: $2.4M
Cash on Hand: $2.3M
Scott Taylor:
01/01 – 03/31 Raised: $357K
Cycle-to-date: $357K
Cash on Hand: $371K
Ben Loyola:
01/01 – 03/31 Raised: $55K
Cycle-to-date: $153K
Cash on Hand: $25K (with $8K in debt)
Jarome Bell:
01/01 – 03/31 Raised: $37K
Cycle-to-date: $37K
Cash on Hand: $4K
Analysis:
As a freshman incumbent in a swing district, Luria figures to be one of the top targets of Republicans in November, and she’s fundraising like it. With over a half-million raised in Q1 alone and a $2M+ warchest, it’s clear this won’t be a case of catching the opposition sleeping.
Of the Republicans in the race, only former Congressman Scott Taylor is putting up competitive numbers — and more importantly, accruing a warchest for the general election. His $357K is over $300K his nearest challenger, and both Loyola and Bell have spent as much as they’ve raised, leaving paltry amounts on hand.
VA-05:
(Trump 55%)
Denver Riggleman (i):
01/01 – 03/31 Raised: $292K
Cycle-to-date: $1.2M
Cash on Hand: $264K
Bob Good:
01/01 – 03/31 Raised: $30K
Cycle-to-date: $140K
Cash on Hand: $42K
Claire Russo:
01/01 – 03/31 Raised: $218K
Cycle-to-date: $430K
Cash on Hand: $273K
RD Huffstetler:
01/01 – 03/31 Raised: $177K
Cycle-to-date: $798K
Cash on Hand: $340K
Cameron Webb:
01/01 – 03/31 Raised: $176K
Cycle-to-date: $505K
Cash on Hand: $209K
John Lesinski:
01/01 – 03/31 Raised: $109K
Cycle-to-date: $244K
Cash on Hand: $74K (with $15K in debt)
Analysis:
The suddenly-open VA-05 race was put on the map in 2018, but after Denver Riggleman won the nomination, it never became a real pick-up opportunity for Democrats. His Q1 shows why: with nearly $300K raised and over a quarter-million in the bank, he’s well-poised to launch an aggressive campaign to keep the seat red in November.
The same can’t be said for his challenger, Bob Good, who put up numbers that would embarrass a House of Delegates candidate. Of course, when you’re running a campaign geared to only engage a few dozen voters, you don’t need that much money. Unfortunately, Good doesn’t really seem to have a plan for what happens if he wins the nomination, beyond hoping for a bailout from national Republicans. All four Democratic challengers in the race raised at least 3x as much as Good, and three of them have at least 5x as much cash on hand.
No matter your position on whether two dudes in love should be able to get married, the question Republicans need to ask themselves is in the must-win 2020 elections: do they really want to have to invest resources to save a candidate who is so clearly unprepared to compete in a general election?
VA-07:
(Trump 51%)
Abigail Spanberger (i):
01/01 – 03/31 Raised: $758K
Cycle-to-date: $3.2M
Cash on Hand: $3.1M
Nick Freitas:
01/01 – 03/31 Raised: $403K
Cycle-to-date: $624K
Cash on Hand: $248K
John McGuire:
01/01 – 03/31 Raised: $153K
Cycle-to-date: $318K
Cash on Hand: $118K
Tina Ramirez:
01/01 – 03/31 Raised: $84K
Cycle-to-date: $309K
Cash on Hand: $33K
Andrew Knaggs:
01/01 – 03/31 Raised: $38K
Cycle-to-date: $138K
Cash on Hand: $35K
Analysis:
In a race that promises to be one of the marquee races across the country, the eventual Republican nominee will have the advantage of running in a seat that Trump won by 8-points with an outright majority, but the disadvantage of running against a well-funded incumbent, as Spanberger has raised over $3M so far this cycle and has kept most of it in her warchest.
Of the four Republican challengers, Nick Freitas is easily outdistancing the field in fundraising, raising more than the rest of the field combined, with over $600K raised this cycle and over a quarter-million still on hand. McGuire is holding steady with over $100K in the bank, but both Ramirez and Knaggs have emptied their warchests, with less than $40K on hand. To put that into perspective, Spanberger has roughly 100x the cash on hand as either Ramirez or Knaggs.
VA-10:
(Trump 44%)
Jennifer Wexton (i):
01/01 – 03/31 Raised: $472K
Cycle-to-date: $2.4M
Cash on Hand: $1.8M
Rob Jones:
01/01 – 03/31 Raised: $173K
Cycle-to-date: $373K
Cash on Hand: $100K
Jeff Dove:
01/01 – 03/31 Raised: $153K
Cycle-to-date: $593K
Cash on Hand: $57K (with $85K in debt)
Alicia Andrews:
01/01 – 03/31 Raised: $20K
Cycle-to-date: $42K
Cash on Hand: $16K (with $10K in debt)
Matt Truong:
01/01 – 03/31 Raised: $7K
Cycle-to-date: $13K
Cash on Hand: $8K (with $7K in debt)
Analysis:
Few expect the 10th District to be competitive in November, and only two candidates – Rob Jones and Jeff Dove – are raising any sort of real money to mount a spirited campaign. Even then, Dove is burning as much money as he raises (a pitfall of using nationwide direct mail fundraising), leaving Jones as the only candidate with a decent warchest heading into the nomination.