Gun Bans Don’t Work, But Some Things Do

By Dennis Free

With over 110 Virginia counties, cities, and towns enacting resolutions supporting law abiding citizens’ right to bear arms, it is clear that the battle lines are being drawn. Before the Democratic governor and legislators go down this path I suggest another reason to reject gun bans. They don’t work, but there are some strategies that do, and others that might.

I was a law enforcement officer for my entire adult working life and had a unique working perspective for 35 years on what worked and what did not. My first 28 years were as a Virginia Beach police officer; the final seven were as the Chief Deputy/Undersheriff of the City of Virginia Beach.

When I joined the Virginia Beach Police Department in 1978 the first modern gun ban, the ban on the Saturday Night Special, was about 10 years old. The goal of this ban was to reduce crime by prohibiting the importation of cheap handguns that police frequently found at crime scenes. The ban was an honest attempt to make our streets safer but the bill assumed that association was the same a causation. Crime, especially violent crime, continued to rise for the next 15 years. The historical record of the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reports during this period clearly shows the ban was ineffective.

In 1994 I was a police sergeant in Special Operations when Congress enacted a ban like the one proposed by the new Virginia Democratic majority in our state house. The ban was nationwide and encompassed assault rifles, assault pistols, and high capacity magazines. While the ban did have a grandfather clause, none of these items were permitted for the next 10 years. However, even with the grandfather clause, the number of prohibited items did shrink due to natural attrition caused by loss, destruction, and police evidentiary confiscation.

The ban had an automatic sunset clause after 10 years but could be renewed.

When the effects of the 1994 ban were studied by the National Institute of Justice in 2004 they found that, “. . . we cannot clearly credit the ban with any of the nation’s recent drop in gun violence.” Further, the study found that if any drop in violence due to the ban could be found it would be so small that it would be difficult to quantify in any meaningful way. The ban was allowed to expire.

The NIJ Researchers did note a drop in gun violence that they could not attribute to the firearms ban but the drop was real. The reduction in all crimes began in the early 1990s  and has continued for the last 30 years. The drop continued for 25 years after the national weapons ban expired.

Today crimes and violent crime rates are at a 30 year low. In Virginia Beach our crime rate is what it was in 1964. What caused this drop? It was not a weapons ban or strict gun laws.

Two of the most recent mass shootings took place in California, a state with an assault weapon ban and strict gun laws. Areas with the strictest gun laws are among our nation’s most violent. Chicago tragically has, on the aggregate, a mass shooting every weekend.

What happened in the early 1990s in Virginia were Truth in Sentencing laws, the abolition of parole, and Project Exile. These laws were a cornerstone of Governor George Allen’s administration. The goal was to keep violent criminals off the street and to enhance penalties for illegal gun use. Similar efforts were made nationwide.

Delegate Jason Miyares of Virginia Beach, a former Commonwealth’s Attorney, noted that prior to these laws violent criminals typically served 20- to 25-percent of their sentences before being released back into society. After about three years, approximately 70 percent of the time cops like me rearrested these violent offenders for another crime.

Recidivism has remained stable and highly resistant to change since our society has studied it. The most accurate predictor of recidivism is age.  The high recidivism rate is persistent through the crime prone years which run from ages 16 to about 45.

After these laws were enacted violent criminals on average served about 90 percent of their sentences. Keeping violent criminals off the street is a working strategy. It is a well know theory of crime reduction called incapacitation. Until such time as we can institute some strategy that will reduce recidivism through the crime-prone years, this is the strategy that best protects our innocent citizens.

People-focused strategies and not object-focused strategies are the way to keep violent crime rates falling. Two people-focused strategies that are under-explored are mental health support and programs to keep that 13-year-old from becoming the 16-year-old criminal.

In 2017 in America, 60 percent of gun deaths were suicides. Keeping firearms out of the hands of the mentally ill is agreed by all but this is only one part of the answer. The strategy that addresses the underlying problem is to provide better support to mental health services.

The Parkland killer, Nikolas Cruz, was well known for his mental health issues and potential for violence. His junior high school counselor said after the shooting he was not surprised but was shocked to discover that Cruz was in a regular high school as opposed to a more restrictive environment. Mental health problems are a common trait in most mass shooters. Failing to address this underlying cause is simply unacceptable.

When I oversaw operations at the Virginia Beach City jail as Chief Deputy we were the largest provider of mental health services in Virginia Beach. Keeping the mentally ill in jails is what was done during colonial times. We can do much better.

Another strategy to keep crime rates falling is a focus on what causes a young person to become a criminal. A breakdown of the nuclear family and traditional support systems such as church are contributing factors but there could be others, including some government actions. An honest examination on how our society has evolved in the past 50 years will be painful as some widely accepted paradigms will be shattered and favorite programs may be shown to be ineffective.

I wish it was as simple as banning something but it is not. The past has clearly shown this. Instead of heading into a battle with law abiding citizens over strategies that have been unsuccessful in the past, try a new course. Focus on people and seek to address the underlying causes of violent crime. That is a plan that has some chance of long lasting success.