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Will the GOP Hold the State Senate?

Saturday we looked at Virginia House of Delegates races [1]. Today let’s take a look at some of the State Senate races as the balance of power in the General Assembly — Republicans have the majority 21-19 — hangs on Tuesday’s election.

#1. Senate District 12 (Henrico and Hanover counties)
Incumbent: Siobhan Dunnavant (R)
Challenger: Debra Rodman (D)
Very competitive … Democrats are battling for this seat. Money raised: Dunnavant $2.5 million; Rodman $2.7 million.

#2. Senate District 13 (Loudoun and Prince William counties)
Incumbent: Open – Dick Black (R) is retiring
Candidates: Geary Higgins (R) and Del. John Bell (D)
Big Democratic spending here for a race that was not supposed to be this competitive — Bell has outraised his opponent with $2.6 million to Higgins’ $1.4 million. Reports from both parties suggest under-performance by Bell on the ground but Dems see this as their opportunity to add to their blue field in NoVa. Northam won the district with 55%.

#3. Senate District 10 (Chesterfield, Powhatan, Richmond)
Incumbent: Glen Sturtevant (R)
Challenger: Ghazala Hashmi (D)
Reports are this race is outside the margin of error. Money raised: Sturtevant $2.3 million, Hashmi $2.4 million. Keep an eye on this one since Chesterfield has been trending less Republican in recent years.

#4. Senate District 7 (Virginia Beach)
Incumbent: Open – Frank Wagner (R) resigned in May after being appointed Deputy Director of the Virginia Lottery
Candidates: Jen Kiggans (R) and Del. Cheryl Turpin (D)
Money raised: Turpin $2 million; Kiggans $1.4 million. VP was in town Saturday — is there hope that Virginia Beach could be the GOP firewall?

#5. Senate District 8 (Virginia Beach)
Incumbent: Bill DeSteph (R)
Challenger: Missy Cotter Smasal
Trump +8 district. Dem has outraised Republican $1.8 to $1.1 million. VP was in the area Saturday to try and hold the line for GOP.

#6. Senate District 17 (Spotsylvania, Orange, Albemarle, Louisa, Fredericksburg, and Culpeper)
Incumbent: Bryce Reeves (R)
Challenger: Amy Laufer (D)
Democrats like their candidate who has raised $1.3 million; Reeves has raised $1.4 million. Kaine carried the district in 2018.

#7. Senate District 11 (Colonial Heights and Amelia)
Incumbent: Sen. Amanda Chase (R)
Challenger: Amanda Pohl (D)
With all the controversy [2] in this race, money hasn’t come in for either candidate in relation to other races. Chase will under-perform here; the question remains will she under-perform enough to lose? Money has been close: Chase $563K; Pohl $615K.